As we reach the usual mid-winter contraction in supply, we can start to look ahead at what the spring might bring. Southern processors have had to head north to find slaughter-ready stock such as heavy cows in recent weeks, raising questions about the availability of that category when the weather warms up. Has another failed autumn in the south started to eat into cow numbers over and above the high herd size destocking phase, and will there be any restocker competition come spring?
While plenty has happened, or not happened when it comes to rain, since April, the latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey carried out by Meat & Livestock Australia can give us some insight into what restockers were at least planning to do, and how numbers are playing out this year. The survey estimated the national on-farm grassfed adult beef cattle number was at 27.93 million as of the end of March 2025, which was a decrease from the 28.51 million head reported in the November 2024 survey.
Looking back at the November 2024 survey, the forecast change in the beef cattle herd by producers then was a 6% increase, which would have taken the 2025 figure to 30.15 million, which is also the 2025 total cattle number MLA forecast in their Cattle Industry Projections released in March. However, they had the 2024 total herd number at 30.56 million, which would indicate a 1.4% decrease in herd size from 2024 to 2025.
In November, of the producers surveyed, 45% were intending to increase herd numbers and 39% were planning to decrease, while this April only 26% were planning on running more cattle. On the flip side, however, November’s survey showed 39% were going to decrease, while in April it was only 19%, with the remaining respondents intending to keep their herd the same size, which was a substantial 56% in April’s case. While producer sentiment did actually improve from November to April, up 6% to 53%, the lack of rain in April has no doubt influenced both these outcomes since.
Actual and forecast sales data from the survey also show an increase in turnoff compared to what was previously expected. In November 2024, producers expected to sell 8.45 million cattle between 1 July 2024 and 30 June 2025. In April, that figure increased to 9.10 million. For the first half of this year, the April survey shows producers had turned off 51% of their expected sales in January-March, with 49% still to come from April-June. Comparatively, the April 2024 survey had this split at 43% sold in the first quarter, and 57% sold in the second.
What does it mean?
The Beef Producers Intentions Survey shows cattle numbers have likely contracted further than previously forecast this year due to the poor seasonal conditions in the south. With more than one in every two producers planning to keep their herd size the same, an increased number of cattle sold or expected to be sold in the first half of the year, and reports of cows being put onto feed to fill future processor supply gaps, restocker opportunities could be limited come spring. On the demand side, while some areas have received rainfall relief in southern Australia, there will need to be a wet start to spring and northern competition to put heat into that market.
Key Points
- Producers report the beef cattle herd has fallen by more than half a million head from November to April.
- Intentions survey shows more than half of producers planned to keep their herd sizes the same when interviewed in April.
- Increased turnoff in the first half of the year is likely to tighten supply more than expected in the spring.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, ALFA, Mecardo, ABS
