Producers have held over last year’s lambs to be sold into 2025 as expected, with rainfall - or a lack thereof - impacting finishing times, and some expecting the market to be more on their side in the new year.
Meat and Livestock Australia and Australian Wool Innovation conducted an abbreviated PULSE version of their Sheep Producers Intentions Survey last month, touching base with those who responded to the October version (you can read analysis of those results here) to see how planned lamb sales compared to actual turnoff. And what they found supports the sustained high slaughter levels, with lamb tracking well above year-ago volumes.
In the October responses, producers estimated 8.11 million lambs would be sold from October through to the end of December, and adding this to the 4.04 million already turned-off since the start of July, meant 12.15 million for the period. In the latest update, using real figure responses rather than planned sales, that number has dipped to 10.55 million lambs. Of course these planned sales had to go somewhere, and 43% of producers expect to turn off more lambs in the first half of 2025 than they expected back in October. This took expected January-June 2025 lamb sales from 10.28 million to 11.81 million head.
The primary reason for this, according to the PULSE survey, was the weather, with 29% of producers saying it impacted lamb performance. A further 14% indicated it was because lambs didn’t make weight – which could also be in part attributed to seasonal conditions. The second most prominent reason producers sold less lambs last year was the market, with 19% expecting it to be stronger in 2025 and retaining lambs because of this, and a further 17% responding that prices weren’t strong enough in the last quarter of 2024.
Just last week we looked at the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data for sheep and lamb (read here), which showed that despite total annual lamb slaughter for 2024 reaching a new high, the December quarter throughput was lower year-on-year, with about half a million less lambs processed. Turning to this year and those leftover lambs are definitely present, with the last four weeks of National Livestock Reporting Service slaughter data available showing numbers still in record territory, well above year-ago and both five and 10-year averages. Nearly 1 million lambs were processed in the two middle weeks of February alone.
What does it mean?
Data from the pulse survey further indicates that lamb supply in the short term is very unlikely to tighten, with flock numbers strong and with producers having held onto them for as long as they can in many cases. This will limit any significant upside to price through until at least the winter, one would think. Another factor pointing to this in the survey was more than half of all expected sales were predicted to be going through the saleyards, meaning those lambs aren’t booked in and processors aren’t knocking at the door to sure up supply.
Key Points
- More than 1.5 million less lambs sold than planned last year as weather impacted performance.
- These lambs will now be sold in the first half of 2025, with 43% of producers increasing planned sales from January-June.
- Producer survey further supports slaughter data indicating lamb supply will remain plentiful.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia; Australian Wool Innovation
