Given the massive flooding in Queensland, the natural question is what impact will this have on livestock supply, and consequently prices? This article takes a look at sheep numbers and wool production in Queensland.
In terms of sheep, it is some decades since Queensland had tens of millions of sheep. In mid-January (read article here ) Mecardo looked at sheep flocks in the main southern hemisphere exporters, showing a generally falling trend in numbers in recent decades. Figure 1 shows the Queensland sheep flock from 1860 through to 2022. The industry is waiting upon ABS state estimates for sheep numbers for recent years – something the sheep and wool industries need to think about. The downward trend in Queensland sheep numbers since 1990 matches the downward trend seen in other countries, albeit with a greater proportional fall in the Sunshine State.
Figure 1 provides a long-term view of the sheep industry in Queensland, showing the rising trend from the mid-19th century, with a massive fall during the Federation drought, after which sheep numbers picked up, actually peaking in 1942, with the mid-1960s flock size not far behind. Sheep numbers in the late 1980s proved to be only a counter-trend to the falling trend begun in the mid-1960s. In recent years the total flock size has settled around 2-3 million head, on par with Tasmania.
To put the Queensland flock into context with the national flock, Figure 2 shows Queensland sheep numbers as a percentage of Australian sheep numbers from 1860 through 2022. In this view Queensland accounted for 15-20% of the national flock in the century from the 1860s to the 1960s (with a brief exception in the late 1870s). From the late 1960s to the late 1990s the Queensland flock accounted for around 9% of the national flock. In the late 1990s when apparel fibre prices were depressed for the best part of four consecutive years dragging medium and broader merino wool prices down to levels which discouraged this wool production. The Queensland share of the national flock fell to 5% in 2002-2003. After 2010 the flock share fell again to 2-3%.
So, the Queensland flock now accounts for 2-3% of the national flock with Queensland wool sales during the past 12 months accounting for 2.4% of sales on a clean basis. The Queensland wool clip tends to be broader than the average and predominantly merino. Figure 3 provides a breakup by micron category of wool sales during the past 12 months, showing the Queensland proportion of each micron category sold. The Queensland share was greatest for the 18 to 20 micron categories (3.4% to 4.3%) with effectively no crossbred wool.
What does it mean?
The Queensland share of the national sheep flock and wool clip has been declining since the mid-1960s. Disruption to the supply of sheep and wool from the current flooding will by minor in terms of national production, concentrated in wool terms in the 18-20 micron categories. From a merino perspective the industry is already under pressure from downsizing in the Western Australian flock and extremely dry conditions in South Australia and Victoria, so lower numbers from Queensland comes at a challenging time.
Key Points
- The Queensland sheep flock accounts for 2-3% of the national flock with the share of wool production 2.4% during the past 12 months.
- Disruption to sheep production from floods will be concentrated in the 18-20 micron categories where Queensland accounts for 3.4% to 4.3% of sales.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, MLA, AWEX, ICS, Mecardo
