All saleyard indicators improved week on week, with gains ranging from 17c to 38c as restocker demand pushed the market higher (See Table 2). MLA saleyard reports noted the widespread drop in numbers and strong willingness of buyers to compete for cattle that did make the trip. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) improved 46c to 925c/kg cwt.
The supply patterns have been dominated in the last 2 months by turnoff coming out of New England and Southern Queensland. 52% of national saleyard throughput has come out of NSW for the year to date, it was 42% last year so the supply pressure has been notable. After a strong start, Victorian cattle supply has backed off and is 21% lower YoY, so volume buyers have had to head North, particularly now as we head into winter.
An important bit of rainfall has fallen in the last week in some of these dry NSW cattle regions. Whilst it won’t be an incredible boost to pasture growth as this time of year you would rather be looking at it than for it. For some it’ll be enough to hold onto some cattle through winter. For buyers, it would appear that winter supply tightness might play more of a factor than we thought 3 or 4 weeks ago.
The lot feeding machine continues to churn which is becoming an increasingly more important support factor for saleyard cattle markets. Per Jamie-Lee Oldfield on Mecardo this week, more than a million cattle were turned off in the first quarter this year from feedlots as capacity lifted again to record highs (read more). Prospects remain favourable for producers aiming to sell cattle into a feedlot program as supply begins to tighten up and lot feeders aim to secure cattle for the 2nd half of this season. The Argus Northern Angus feeder steer Indicator has remained above 500c/kg lwt per Argus, as premiums in the market remain for black steers but other feeder types have also rallied after dipping to 450 last month.
If the prize is selling grainfed beef into the Chinese market under quota, then the trade will be very focussed on hitting the ground running in early 2027. New quota year starts in 217 days, if high marble beef spends 150 -200 days on feed, there could be some premiums to secure appropriate cattle in the coming weeks.
Rain and grain push market higher
Next week
US Beef tariff changes were announced but have not been actioned and are currently under some political pressure in the States from the domestic supply chain. Whilst local production will keep on trucking, there is some uncertainty on the export side of the market about short term prospects, bookings and pricing as the China quota arrives sharply into view.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Bureau of Meteorology, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Cattle restockers awaken
There has been some sentiment shift in cattle markets, and as usual it’s more to do with the weather than anything else. Restockers are back
What next after China?
After some rapid improvement in the last few weeks, the major saleyard indicators saw some minor decline this week as the market adjusts to new
Monster May for beef exports as China quota looms
The scramble to get beef into China before Australia’s quota is filled for the year, along with continued soaring demand from the US, has pushed
Demand swings back towards the sellers favour
The latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey (BPIS), undertaken by Meat & Livestock Australia with results released this week, shows overall positivity in the industry, with
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.