The latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey results were released by Meat and Livestock Australia earlier this month, with improving cattle prices the main driver behind the industry maintaining a positive sentiment over the past 12 months. Despite the survey being conducted in April, when many areas of southern Australia were yet to be assured of the fairly widespread positive end-of-autumn start-of-winter seasonal conditions, it was producers in the south which boosted overall sentiment. Both halves of the country had similar herd size intentions, with about a quarter looking to increase their numbers over the next year. And despite overall national cattle numbers projected to decrease this year, the BPIS estimates the on-farm grassfed adult beef cattle herd has actually been on the rise over the past two years.
BPIS collected information from more than 3000 producers throughout April and estimated there were 29.65 million head of adult grassfed beef cattle on-farm as of the end of March. Looking at the two previous April surveys, this was an increase of 6% on 2025, and 12% on 2024. Comparatively, total cattle numbers in MLA’s latest industry projections, released in March, show the herd decreasing by 1% year-on-year in 2026, after falling very marginally (0.10%) in 2025. According to BPIS, 46% of the national grassfed beef cattle herd resides in Queensland, but the southern Australian herd collectively is about 1.3 million head bigger than that in the north.
Producer on-farm herd size intentions have held fairly steady over the past 12 months, with 26% of producers nationally intending to increase numbers this year, and that number being the same across both the south and north. Nationally the figure looking to decrease numbers this year has jumped 2% since April 2025 to 21%, with southern Australia at 22% and northern Australia just 16%.
Sentiment wise, nationally the net value sits at +53, exactly where it was 12 months earlier. And while southern and northern Australia held similar values this time around +53 and +52 respectively, the regional and state year-on-year changes tell a different story. Net sentiment in northern Australia in April 2025 was at +65, significantly higher than it was this April. State wise, NSW and Queensland dropped 13 and 19 points respectively, while all other states improved by 20 or more points, with WA up 40 points – a clear divide between where rain had already been received in April and where it hadn’t. Improved prices were by far the biggest driver of positivity, while fuel prices, the conflict in the middle east and dry seasonal conditions drove negative sentiment.
As with all these surveys, actual and expected sales offer the most insight, however the short-term forecasts in this one, teamed with the time for results to be collated and released, mean projected sales are pretty much already actual throughput. It will come as no surprise given continued historically high slaughter that actual and expected sales for the first half of 2026 increased significantly since the last survey taken in November of 2025, bringing turnoff for the 12 months ending 1 July 2026 up 1.1 million head higher than was previously expected.
What does it mean?
While intentions are just that, what the latest BPIS points to is a higher turn-off already having occurred and more than three quarters of all producers intending to maintain or increase numbers this year. Relatively to recent years, if the season continues to comply, we could start to see that historically high slaughter starts to contract, supporting current strong prices in the medium term.
Key Points
- Beef Producer Intentions survey estimates the national on-farm grassfed adult beef cattle herd has increased about 1.75 million head in the past 12 months.
- Producer intentions for herd size are similar across both northern and southern Australia, with over half of producers intending to keep their current numbers.
- National producer sentiment is firm on 12 months ago, but northern Australia sentiment has fallen by 13 points since last April.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Meat & Livestock Australia, Mecardo
