After the cyclonic floods of eastern Queensland at the start of the month, we're now seeing prolonged flooding in western Queensland. While many think it's the desert getting wet, survey data tells us there are a lot of cattle out there, and this will impact markets in both the short and long term.
Figure 1 is the rainfall map for the last week, and it shows vast areas of western Queensland have received over 200mm of rain. Much of the rain that has fallen will move across the countryside, causing flooding along the way towards Lake Eyre. If we overlay the rainfall chart with Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) cattle distribution map (see map here) we can see the ‘Desert Channels’ region has received the rain. Figure 2 shows that Desert Channels had the third-largest herd in 2021. The latest data, from 2021, makes the rain-affected area home to more than 1.63 million head of cattle, or 5.6% of the herd. There are also parts of the ‘Southern Gulf region (1.12 million head) and ‘South-West Queensland’ (0.6 million head) that have been affected by rain and flooding.
At the very least, the rainfall will mean no cattle come out of the affected area over the coming weeks and possibly months. At worst, there will be heavy stock losses, and with so many cattle in the area, it could have a significant impact on the herd. In the short term, expect to see impacts on the supply of cattle for slaughter and into feedlots. Looking for equivalent periods in the past was impossible, as the reports of this being unprecedented appear to be accurate. Back in early 2012, there was flooding in the Desert Channels, but rainfall was up to 200mm, not the 250+ mm we have seen in the last week.
Figure 3 shows Queensland slaughter peaked a fortnight ago, and we saw a similar peak in 2012. The Easter and Anzac Day break always sees low slaughter levels, but in 2012, Queensland slaughter came out lower. Historically, slaughter trends are higher through May and into June.
What does it mean?
Tighter supply in Queensland will offer plenty of price support across the east coast in the short term. The scale of livestock losses won’t be known for some time, and as such, the impact on the herd is hard to quantify.
Key Points
- Floods in Western Queensland are over some major cattle-producing regions.
- A similar, but more minor, event in 2012 saw May and June cattle slaughter lower in Queensland.
- There will be short and long-term supply impacts for the cattle market.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, BOM, Mecardo.
