Harvest has stalled somewhat on the east coast, with rain pulling up headers across much of southern NSW and into Victoria. The WA crop was coming off apace up until the latest update, it will be interesting to see how much more they can deliver.
The ‘Harvest Updates’ were a little slow out of SA and WA this week, but on the east coast we have data to the end of last week. Figure 1 shows harvest slowing in NSW last week, after three weeks of pretty good progress.
Queensland was all but done in the first week of November, but it’s interesting to see Victoria has moved past Queensland yet in terms of deliveries to Graincorp. Having said that, it is usually December before the Victorian harvest really ramps up, but it looks like croppers will be waiting until next week before they get a good crack at it.
Last year Victoria delivered 4.17 million tonnes to the Graincorp system. Deliveries will be lower this year, but there is still someway to go from the 1.16 million tonnes which are in the bin thus far.
The SA harvest ramped up in the week ending the 28th but it would likely have slowed last week as well. Rain in NSW saw deliveries fall, but they already have nearly double the amount of grain delivered compared to the total of last year.
Figure 2 reflects how far NSW is in front of last year, being the major contributor to Graincorp deliveries. In just the fifth week of harvest deliveries surpassed the 2023-24 total, and it will be interesting to see if the remaining grain in NSW and Victoria can push to new highs in the second half of December. Grain quality will no doubt be a talking point after the rain on the crops ready to be harvested.
In terms of price, it has been international factors more than local ones that have been moving markets. After Trump made Canola rise, he made it fall just as quickly with more tariff talk. In wheat price for APW and better grade have held in the face of easing Soft Red Wheat (Figure 3). No doubt traders will be waiting on the first couple of days post-harvest to see where quality is and adjust accordingly.
What does it mean?
There is nothing like rain on harvest and slowing deliveries to create uncertainty. When the wet weather lasts a few days, issues like shot and sprung grain start to impact prices. Feed could get cheaper and milling grain more expensive.
Key Points
- Rain has seen harvest slow on the east coast, with plenty of grain still to come in.
- The WA crop has been coming in rapidly, while SA has been slower.
- Prices for milling wheat have held as weather damage is assessed.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Graincorp, CBH, Viterra, ASX, CME, Bloomberg, Mecardo
