Producer sentiment has lifted to its highest point in the beef industry since Meat & Livestock Australia began using a national survey to gauge the sector’s temperature around three years ago. The Beef Producer’s Intentions Survey (BPIS) was conducted in November, with results released last week. It found that of the 3,000 grassfed beef producers surveyed, half planned to have more cattle in their herds in 2026, primarily due to being in a rebuilding phase and expecting “good conditions over the next 12 months”.
A summer of fire and flood has likely impacted sentiment and intentions in some areas, but the domestic cattle market has remained historically strong since November, which could also have buoyed sentiment in parts of the country. At the time of the survey, 79% of respondents were positive about the beef cattle industry over the next year, while just 3% were negative, with the remaining 16% neutral. This equated to 76% net positivity, a significant increase from 53% in April 2025 and 47% the previous November. Interestingly, while net sentiment was higher in northern Australia in this BPIS at 79% compared to 76% in the south, the year-on-year increase was 7% higher in southern Australia.
The BPIS estimated the grassfed adult beef cattle herd at 29.6 million head in November, not including calves. The September MLA industry outlook had the total herd at 31 million head as of June 30, with projections showing that herd size dipping marginally by 0.1% in 2026. The BPIS, however, has the herd increasing, with one in every two producers planning to have more cattle by November this year. Of those, 49% intend to retain more heifers than normal, while 24% plan to increase numbers through steer purchases, impacting both sides of the market. Comparatively, last November 45% of producers were looking to increase herd numbers, with 53% doing so through heifer retention and 19% through buying more steers.
On the flip side, 35% of producers were likely to decrease their herds, with respondents from both the north and south citing low rainfall as the main reason. If these intentions play out, Australia’s cattle herd would grow this year, increasing by 3% to 30.57 million head. Producer sales data also provides insight, with trade cattle sales showing the biggest change since the previous November. Of the backgrounder, trader, grower and fattener cattle on hand in November, total and expected sales for the second half of 2025 were 55%, with 45% expected in the first half of 2026. Comparatively, this split was 47% and 53% respectively in 2024/25.
What does it mean?
The latest female slaughter rate from September last year was 53%, well into traditional turn-off levels. While last quarter’s data is not yet available, slaughter has remained historically high, suggesting the female slaughter rate likely has as well. While Australia has been in what is considered a cyclical high herd number destock since 2024, market resilience through 2025 has seen producers pushing to maintain, and in some cases grow, herd numbers. If seasonal conditions remain positive, this will lift domestic demand through the year.
Key Points
- March quarter cattle slaughter was up strongly on last year, but female slaughter is still well down on last year.
- Male cattle slaughter is back at the five-year average and will continue to grow.
- Cattle supply is going to be stronger, increased demand is required to boost prices.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, MLA, Mecardo
