Australian beef export volumes reached new highs in 2024 and are set to continue climbing in 2025. Our domestic beef herd reached maturation last year, driving up slaughter and moving us into the destocking stage of the cycle, with the female slaughter rate averaging 51% for the first three quarters of the year. This lift in beef production meant ample supply, and the opposite scenario in the US meant the uptick in demand the industry had been expecting, which all led to bumper exports; and all signs are pointing to this being the case again in 2025.
With January perhaps the busiest month of
the year in Australia for young cattle sales, it pays to remind ourselves why
exports matter to the producer, and that is because more than 60% of our beef
gets sent overseas each year. The export trade dynamic is often one of the
biggest influences on farmgate returns – outside the weather of course! It is
particularly so at times of high supply, which 2025 is set to be – the last
Meat & Livestock Australia projection has slaughter rising by another
200,000 head this year.
Looking at the year that was, Australia
exported 1.34 million tonnes of beef in 2024, an increase of 22% from 2023, and
4% higher than the previous record of 1.29 million tonnes in 2014. This was
only about 1% less than what MLA forecast for the year. It included a new
single month record volume of more than 130,000 tonnes, set in October. Both
the MLA and USDA projection for 2025 is 1.37 million tonnes, a 2% increase from
this year. And Australia looks to be the
only top 10 beef-producing nation that will increase its production this year.
Where did it go? Mainly to the US, which
took 60% more Australian beef year-on-year, and 49% more than their five-year
average. Another of the top markets, Japan, took 16% more beef, and this likely
accounts for the fact it was also a record year for grainfed beef exports from
Australia (also due to the record number of cattle on feed). Despite plenty of
observations about the struggling Chinese economy, they still increased their
intake of Australian beef by 5% year-on-year, taking their largest volume since
2019 – albeit that still equated to 10% less of the market share than it did
that year.
Where will it go this year? The US cattle
herd has been heading in the opposite direction from Australia due to
widespread drought, and last year was estimated to be at its lowest point in
more than 70 years. Cow and bull slaughter in the US remains subdued this year
so far, closing last week 14% lower year-on-year and nearly 39% below 2023
levels. This is predicted to remain the case for much of 2025, limiting their
lean beef supplies and keeping them looking to Australia to fill some of the
void.
What does it mean?
This demand means domestic US beef prices are trending historically high, and this alongside a strong US dollar can only mean good things for the imported beef price. The 90CL indicator broke through the $10/kg mark for the first time in December and currently sits at 1058c/kg, 29% higher year-on-year. This will play an important role in supporting Australia’s domestic cattle prices as supply remains high.
Key Points
- Australian beef exports reached a record high in 2024 of 1.34 million tonnes, increasing by more than 20% on the previous year.
- Volumes to the US lifted by 51% year-on-year, with America taking nearly 29% of Australia’s exported beef.
- Exports are set to rise again this year with domestic slaughter and demand from our biggest market forecast to lift further.
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Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Meat and Livestock Australia; Steiner Consulting Group, Mecardo
