With the market finishing like Winx last season there was always going to be a rush of supply post-sale break. After carrying lambs through a tough winter-spring in Victoria and a hot dry Christmas break (where pockets of pasture were impacted by bushfires); some producers saw the market open this week as an opportunity to exit on these less-than-ideal lambs.
Supply out the gates has been immense, with the indicative
lamb and sheep yarding figure of 378K almost 9% higher than the same week in
2024. The uptick is largely driven by lighter unfinished lambs.
A quick scan of the MLA saleyard reports tells us the story
was pretty consistent. Store lambs
opened to a softer market, the ratio of heavy lambs to lighter lambs remains
low and store buyers were present but not all were active. The new normal will take a week or two to
balance out, as these buyers are expecting more lambs to come forward and will
not want to participate at the Christmas high tide mark when it comes to price
if they can avoid it.
Whilst the market eased up considerably (but not
unexpectedly) for trade lambs in response to these numbers, the lighter end of
the offering found welcoming homes and supportive bids from restockers and
feeders who got a drink over Christmas. Since the week ending 20th
December 2024, The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) lost 109¢ to
810¢/kg cwt and the National Restocker Lamb Indicator lost just 2¢ to 760¢kg
cwt.
In general, the population of lambs at the saleyards are
still trending on the lighter side, a trend that dictated the market throughout
Spring through to December. The trend
that didn’t continue this week was the steep premium for heavy lambs being
paid. with less activity among trade and export lamb buyers noted in saleyard
reports. The National Heavy Lamb
Indicator lost 108¢ to 846¢/kg cwt. Santa
was good to those selling Mutton, with mutton prices jumping 16% since the 20th
December to 440¢/kg cwt.
Next week
The lambs that didn’t make it to sale condition in Spring have to come at some point so momentum with yardings will continue. As long as the aussie dollar continues to take a beating, overseas importers will prioritise Australian sheepmeat and the tea leaves suggest another big quarter of production is ahead. This should help to support prices when these lambs arrive to market.
Spurred by widespread rain on the East coast and plenty of quality pens; restockers and processors clashed at the rail sending prices skywards. One more
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In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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Santa has been good to those offloading mutton
Next week
The lambs that didn’t make it to sale condition in Spring have to come at some point so momentum with yardings will continue. As long as the aussie dollar continues to take a beating, overseas importers will prioritise Australian sheepmeat and the tea leaves suggest another big quarter of production is ahead. This should help to support prices when these lambs arrive to market.
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Data sources: MLA, BOM, Mecardo
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Santa has been good to those offloading mutton
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Spurred by widespread rain on the East coast and plenty of quality pens; restockers and processors clashed at the rail sending prices skywards. One more
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.