East coast lamb yardings were 79% below the five year average trend at just 39,798 head (Figure 1). We’ve been looking at the 2011 season as a reference point of how supply played out during a rebuild. However, last weeks throughput suggests that we might be reaching into new territory. The low in 2011 still saw 70,000 lambs pass through east coast yards and this was during a week of Easter disruption.
The story was much the same for sheep yardings. East coast sheep throughput fell 66% from the week prior and was 83% below the five year average trend (Figure 2). Zoning in on the various states and it was clear who drove the dramatic fall in yardings. New South Wales combined sheep and lamb yardings were 89% below the five year average, while Victoria wasn’t far behind at 69% below the average trend for this time of the season. Recent rain in these regions appears to be adding more optimism to the outlook and incentivizing producers to hold onto stock.
Sheep and lamb slaughter volumes saw little change from the week prior. Weekly east coast sheep slaughter remains at 53% below the same period last year (Figure 3). For the calendar year 2020 to April, sheep slaughter was down 25%, so the trend is increasing which is positive for the Australian flock.
All CV indicators responded to the lower supply with gains. The Mutton CV19 indicator lifted 5.3% on the week to $180/head and the Processor lamb indicator picked up an impressive 10% to $220/head. The Restocker lamb CV19 indicator also had a modest rise over the week of 3.8% to sit at $164/head on Thursday.
Sheep and lambs “stay home”
Next week
The winter rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology this week looks promising for much of the country. Tight supply is certainly here to stay. Whether last week’s slaughter and yardings figures hint at just how tight we can expect the next few months to be, is something we’ll be watching closely.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
Categories
2024 a year of recovery for lamb?
It’s that time of year when we dust off the crystal ball and take a look at what markets are likely to do in 2024.
More rain lifts prices
Widespread rain on the East Coast helped prices continue their upward trajectory, supported by a decrease in throughput as growers’ feed supply concerns further eased.
Lamb turnoff takes precedence
Sheep slaughter for the September 2023 quarter rose year-on-year but dropped in comparison to the previous quarter, the first time this has occurred since 2016.
Lambs are looking up
Rainfall in the east – whether it actually fell or is still forecast to come – continued to support sheep and lamb prices this week,
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.