Sheep and lambs steady as the season unfolds

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The sheep and lamb market held fairly steady this week, as many in the south wait for the next rain event to give a clearer indication of how their autumn will pan out. Total lamb supply has yet to start any sort of decline, despite the next drop starting to hit the ground in many paddocks.

The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator closed the week at 770.57c/kg, which was spot on the five-year average. It was a slight drop for the week but is still 22% stronger than this time last year. Nearly 70% of all lambs reported in the ESTLI this week came through NSW yards.

Despite still operating at the biggest year-on-year premium, restocker lambs have felt the biggest downward pressure from the dry start to the autumn months, losing 50c/kg in the past month. This leaves them below the five-year average, but could quickly turn around when the season breaks, especially if heavy grids keep improving.

Heavy lambs jumped 15c/kg this week, taking it 7% above the five-year average, and 20% higher year-on-year. There was plenty of supply – an extra 5000 head going through the indicator – but demand obviously kept up. Historically, heavy lamb prices peak for the year in mid-July, rising between now and then, which bodes well for those with lambs they will finish in the next few months.

Total sheep and lamb slaughter rose last week by more than 73,000 head, keeping the trend line for throughput this year above year-ago and five-year-average levels. Three-quarters of the increase came from lambs, and a vast majority of those were processed in Victoria, which lifted by 43,640 head on the previous week.

The sheep and lamb split looks to have continued this week, with about 12,500 fewer sheep going through the mutton indicator and close to the same number more being counted in the lamb price gauges. Mutton jumped 20c/kg for the week and has climbed nearly 45c/kg in the past month. This is a whopping 70% above year-ago levels but still sits 6% below the 10-year average

Next week

Rain, glorious rain, will dictate both throughput and market trends in the coming week, and while it doesn’t rain grass, it does often rain confidence, which could give restocker and feeder buying action a boost. Also, this week is April 2, the date on which US President Trump indicated he would place tariffs on all agricultural imports, which will impact our export markets.

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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo

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