Meat and Livestock Australia have released the latest Sheep Producers Intentions Survey Results with data collected throughout May. The May iterations of this survey now focus primarily on ewe flock and producer sentiment, rather than giving an insight into lamb numbers and potential sales, which we see in the October version.
This survey shows the sheepmeat sector has
had quite a decline in positivity in the past 12 months, no doubt linked to
market conditions, but ewe flock numbers have increased. Looking ahead, they
are expected to head in the other direction in 2025.
Comparing breeding ewe numbers first, the
producers survey estimates there are currently 47.97 million on hand, up 4%
from the same time last year. The same number – 96% – of producers have
breeding ewes on hand, but breeding ewes make up an extra 2% of the total flock
in 2024 compared to 2023 – up to 68% from 66%. Despite much drier seasonal
conditionals in parts of southern Australia, the percentage of the flock in
each state has held pretty much firm year-on-year.
Unsurprisingly the breed makeup of the ewe
flock continues to change, albeit slowly, with Merinos dropping from 64% of the
ewe breeding flock in May 2023 to 61% this time around. The number of producers
with Merino ewes has dropped further, from 56% to 48%. Prime lamb ewes
(composites or terminals) have increased by 3%, as have the percentage of
shedders. Dual-purpose and first-cross ewes have both declined, by 1% and 2%
respectively.
The make-up of the rest of the flock (not
breeding ewes) has remained consistent, with 20% lambs and 12% wethers
(compared to 21% and 13% last year, with their overall decline making up the
increase in ewes). However, both are estimated to have dropped in actual
numbers year-on-year, lambs by 6% and wethers by 7%.
Moving over to producer intentions, last
year 30% of the respondents thought they would increase ewe numbers in the
following 12 months. This time around just 22% expect to have more breeding
ewes in May 2025. This year 42% are expecting to decrease numbers through to
next year, while in May 2023 just 32% were looking to downsize. This has led
the forecast to predict a 9% dip in ewe breeding numbers by next May.
Less relevant to market outcomes due to its
more fluid nature, but interesting all the same, is the producer sentiment.
This survey showed it to be +4 positive (36% positive respondents, 32%
negative, the remainder neutral), compared to 27% positive at the same time
last year. However, sentiment has increased significantly since the last survey
in October, when it was at -42 (18% positive, 60% negative).
What does it mean?
We know a couple of good rains or the forecasted stronger lamb prices this spring could change producer intentions overnight, which is why last May’s survey predicted the breeding ewe flock would contract by 6%, and this year’s is showing it actually grew by 4%. This survey’s forecast of the breeding ewe flock falling by 9% next year more closely follows the MLA industry projections of a total flock 6% lower than 2023 in 2025.
Key Points
- Latest sheep producer intention survey estimates the national ewe flock has increased 4% in the past year.
- It also predicts the ewe flock will now decrease by 9% through to 2025, with 42% of respondents expecting to downsize.
- Producer sentiment for the sheepmeat sector has lifted significantly since October but remains below year-ago levels.
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, AWI, Mecardo
