The mutton miracle we’ve seen over the last month brought forward a significant jump in numbers this week, taking some of the heat out of the market.
The saleyards were inundated with sheep this week, with producers looking to cash in on the miraculous mutton prices seen in April. Mutton supply was 21% higher week on week, which pushed the National Mutton Indicator (NMI) 94¢ lower to 532¢/kg cwt ($138 per head on average).
Heavy lambs tracked sideways this week, with the heaviest export types in Wagga reaching as high as $339/head. Light and merino lambs averaged 50¢/kg losses this week, and the ESTLI (Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator) lost 23¢ to 828¢/kg cwt. In WA, trade lambs reached 660¢/kg cwt (29¢ higher) and restocker lamb indicators improved 57¢ to 577¢/kg cwt.
This week on Mecardo, Angus Brown looked at historical supply trends to indicate the potential for lamb and sheep prices over Winter (Read more here). Current supply looks similar to 2019, when supply dipped sharply in winter. Whilst this wasn’t the case this week, expectations are for supply to eventually tighten up over winter. In particular heavy heavy-framed cull sheep, which processors have relied on all summer and autumn. This should provide upside similar to 2019, however, rain is still evading the Riverina and Western Victoria.
What producers will do over the winter is yet to be determined. Strong export, processor, and northern restocker demand is forecast for the rest of the season, however, there will be significant fatigue with hand feeding stock in the south. As seen this week, the opportunity to cash out of stock into a rising market will likely create volatile changes week to week over the coming months.
Last season’s dry conditions created premiums for heavier new-season lambs over spring. Lower markings and dryer conditions could see this happen again, which will keep those who have had rainfall keen on lambs to feed over winter. The MLA-AWI sheep producers’ intention survey is open now (Participate here), which contributes to setting market expectations on the supply front.
The week ahead….
Another 100K throughput of mutton would put a bit more pressure on mutton markets, but April markets were moving through 125k head of mutton a week in the range we sit at today.
The 90-day pause on tariffs benefits exporters looking to shift product with more certainty to the US in the very short term, and the pick of the export lambs at the yards continues to attract strong bids.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released it’s quarterly ‘Livestock Products’ data and statistics on Friday. There is plenty of data to dig through, but
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Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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Sheep running not walking to the yards
The saleyards were inundated with sheep this week, with producers looking to cash in on the miraculous mutton prices seen in April. Mutton supply was 21% higher week on week, which pushed the National Mutton Indicator (NMI) 94¢ lower to 532¢/kg cwt ($138 per head on average).
Heavy lambs tracked sideways this week, with the heaviest export types in Wagga reaching as high as $339/head. Light and merino lambs averaged 50¢/kg losses this week, and the ESTLI (Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator) lost 23¢ to 828¢/kg cwt. In WA, trade lambs reached 660¢/kg cwt (29¢ higher) and restocker lamb indicators improved 57¢ to 577¢/kg cwt.
This week on Mecardo, Angus Brown looked at historical supply trends to indicate the potential for lamb and sheep prices over Winter (Read more here). Current supply looks similar to 2019, when supply dipped sharply in winter. Whilst this wasn’t the case this week, expectations are for supply to eventually tighten up over winter. In particular heavy heavy-framed cull sheep, which processors have relied on all summer and autumn. This should provide upside similar to 2019, however, rain is still evading the Riverina and Western Victoria.
What producers will do over the winter is yet to be determined. Strong export, processor, and northern restocker demand is forecast for the rest of the season, however, there will be significant fatigue with hand feeding stock in the south. As seen this week, the opportunity to cash out of stock into a rising market will likely create volatile changes week to week over the coming months.
Last season’s dry conditions created premiums for heavier new-season lambs over spring. Lower markings and dryer conditions could see this happen again, which will keep those who have had rainfall keen on lambs to feed over winter. The MLA-AWI sheep producers’ intention survey is open now (Participate here), which contributes to setting market expectations on the supply front.
The week ahead….
Another 100K throughput of mutton would put a bit more pressure on mutton markets, but April markets were moving through 125k head of mutton a week in the range we sit at today.
The 90-day pause on tariffs benefits exporters looking to shift product with more certainty to the US in the very short term, and the pick of the export lambs at the yards continues to attract strong bids.
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Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo.
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.