We’ve been hearing about the short supply of sheep and lamb for some time, but with a third of the year now gone, we can get a gauge on how many have already gone through the production system, and what that might mean for the rest of 2026. So far this year, national sheep and lamb slaughter has been trending well behind 2025 levels, but it wasn’t until March onwards that it started also tracking lower than both the five and 10-year averages.
Looking at the total throughout before switching to sheep and lambs specifically and compared for the year-to-date, the weekly average slaughter figure is sitting about on-par with 2023, at about 517,000 head. It’s a mixed bag in terms of if the years-end weekly average slaughter number increases or decreases between now and the end of the year, driven by seasons and markets, but if we look at 2020, which was the last time we had a flock figure around what the 2026 projection is, the number was 7% lower by December 31.
Sheep slaughter has had the most significant decline so far in 2026, with the national weekly average 36% lower year-on-year for the same period in time. We have to go back to 2022 to find a lower year-to-date weekly average figure, and if we use 2020 as our reference point again, sheep slaughter is currently tracking 4% lower. Looking forward, however, there has been a clearer trend with weekly sheep slaughter finishing the year higher than it currently sits in a majority of the past 10 years.
Lamb, while also trending lower than the past two record-breaking years, has historically remained strong, still sitting well above the 10-year-average due to both supply chain capacity increases and numbers. So far this year Australia has slaughtered 6.7 million lambs, compared to 7.9 million at the same time last year. Again, going back to similar flock numbers of 2020, and lamb slaughter weekly average for the year-to-date is still 9% higher now than it was then.
Meat and Livestock Australia forecast in March that just shy of 29 million head of sheep and lamb will be slaughtered this year, which would be 17% less than last year, and 24% – or 9 million head – lower than the peak reached in 2024. Breaking it down, and the forecast in terms of actual numbers was that sheep and lamb would fall by similar volumes year-on-year. However, when it comes to percentages, those figures are much more diverse, with lamb dropping a projected 11%, and sheep back significantly more at 30%.
What does it mean?
Now we have the figures, we can do some quick maths. National lamb slaughter is sitting 16% lower for the year-to-date than last year, meaning it will take some making up to do if it is only to finish 11% down by the end of the year, keeping in mind that the weekly average lamb slaughter dropped 14% between now and the end of the year in 2025. Even if the weekly slaughter increases by 3% by the year’s end like it did in 2020, it will still not be enough to get us to the forecasted total. Year-to-date sheep slaughter is a whopping 70% lower than for the same period last year, so even if the weekly slaughter figure picks up by the 18% as it did in 2020, the total annual sheep slaughter dropping by only 30% is fairly unlikely at this stage – especially given more favourable seasonal conditions in the southeast.
Key Points
- Year-to-date sheep slaughter is sitting 70% lower than the same period in 2025.
- Lamb slaughter has also slowed but still sits above historical averages.
- Annual forecast slaughter figures are unlikely at current throughput levels.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
