The average National Mutton Indicator price for the June quarter hit a new record this year on the back of plummeting sheep supply and subsequent slaughter. Recently released Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly data shows just how much sheep supply has dipped this year and continued historically high prices have been confirming this. Now that spring has sprung, what’s left on the cards for mutton?
June quarter sheep slaughter fell to 1.33 million head, a decline of 47% on the same period last year, and 35% below the five-year-average. The last time the sheep kill was lower in any quarter was June 2021, and there have only been two quarters in the past decade (June 2020 and June 2021) which have recorded lower sheep slaughter. The 2025-26 financial year total was about 8 million head, a decline of more than 30% year-on-year.
What has this done to pricing so far this year? Well, the June quarter NMI average was a record 822¢/kg. Year-to-date, the NMI is averaging 819¢/kg – also a record. The second-highest average for the same period occurred the last time mutton slaughter was lower, which was in 2021, however, that figure of 642¢/kg was 25% lower than it is this year. Year-on-year, the NMI average has risen 44% for the first eight months.
Five-year average figures tell us that the September through December NMI average is 23¢/kg lower than the average for the January to August period, which would have the mutton price averaging just shy of 800¢/kg for the remainder of the year – well clear of any returns we’ve seen previously. If we go back to 2020/21, the price average fell by about 40¢/kg in both those years. Even if that occurs, the NMI will still be sitting more than 100¢/kg clear of any previous average prices.
Sheep slaughter still to come will of course be the determining factor. The five-year-average encompasses both the lowest annual slaughter figure for the past decade (2021) and the highest (2024). The average shows us that second half sheep slaughter is roughly equivalent to the first half, which would bring the 2026 total to about 6.7 million – which still sits above the 2020 through 2022 period. However, it is still well below the 7.15 million figure that the latest Meat & Livestock Australia forecast in March predicted.
What does it mean?
The trend that stands out when looking at second half sheep slaughter is that for the 2020 through 2022 period, the third and fourth quarter totals were higher than the previous quarter for all three years. Moving into the 2023-2025 years, sheep slaughter fell in the third quarter before rising again in the fourth. While this year has started off like the rebuilding years of 2020-22, it is hard to see it not bucking the trend for increased slaughter – at least in the fourth quarter – given how far the sheep kill has fallen year-on-year. That said, if the supply is out there, that record NMI will surely incentivise their turnoff.
Key Points
- Sheep slaughter has plummeted over the past year, falling 47% in the June quarter.
- NMI at record average so far in 2026, and likely to remain there for the second half of the year.
- History shows sheep slaughter doesn’t usually fall further in the second half of the year – but will 2026 buck the trend?
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Meat & Livestock Australia, ABS, Mecardo
