Australian sheepmeat exports have slowed from their record-setting momentum, as lower supply and subsequent higher domestic pricing have likely started to impact volumes. Meat and Livestock Australia forecast further growth from last year’s record sheepmeat exports in 2025, specifically lamb, in their March industry projection. This could be a different story when they update those figures this month after widespread dry conditions in sheep-producing areas and further global unrest.
Lamb exports in August fell more than 23% from the previous month and were 14% below the five-year average for the month. It was the first month this year volumes had fallen below the short-term average, and it was also nearly 8,000 tonnes lower year-on-year. Year-to-date, lamb exports are 12% behind the same time last year but still sit about 9% above the five-year figure for the same period.
The US remained Australia’s largest lamb customer, and August volumes sat marginally above the average figure for that month. However, we have to go back to 2021 to find an August where less Australian lamb was sent to the US. Month-on-month, volumes dipped by nearly 17%, while year-to-date 2025 now lags 4% behind 2024. China was the only major single-country market to increase its intake of Australian lamb in August compared to both the previous month and year-on-year, but volumes still sat below the five-year average. Year-to-date, Chinese lamb imports from Australia are up 16% from 2024.
The Middle East continued to decrease lamb imports, taking just 3,647 tonnes in August, the lowest monthly total out of Australia since January 2023. Regional unrest could be impacting this, as could a lack of ability to meet higher price points as Australian supply declined. Year-to-date, Middle East lamb volumes are down 30%. The market’s intake of mutton has also declined, albeit to a lesser extent, with volumes for the first eight months of the year 18% lower than in 2024. Again, we have to go back to early 2023 to find a lower month for mutton into the Middle East.
Mutton exports overall are now 9% lower for January–August than they were last year, with August volumes 3% below the short-term average. Volumes did rise from July, however, by about 8%. Before last month, it had been exactly three years since we had seen a monthly export figure lower than this one. Historically, of course, volumes remain strong. The US recorded their biggest monthly intake of Australian mutton for the year in August, but this was still only 6% of market share. China remains the largest single-country market with 29%, but it was 2017 the last time their August intake was lower.
What does it mean?
Australia’s late winter supply crunch was inevitably going to have an impact, with poor seasonal conditions being felt further abroad with a large lotfeeding sector to maintain suitable stock throughput as in beef. New projections this month could shed more light, but it is unlikely volumes will be able to rebound to match or overtake year-ago-levels on the back of current levels.
Key Points
- Lamb exports to China record second highest October volume on record, but market share is still at pre-2017 levels.
- Mutton exports to China for the month sit below the five-year average, but still makeup 38% of the Australian mutton export market.
- China’s imports of animal protein expected to dip further in 2023.
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Data sources: Mecardo; Meat & Livestock Australia
