Winter is right around the corner, and historically, we start to see an increase in weekly cattle slaughter figures from here on out. Domestic seasonal conditions and international trade continue to impact the market this year, but as always, the supply side of the equation will play one of the biggest roles as we head into the second half of 2025.
As usual, April figures were skewed from
public holidays, but year-to-date actual throughput is up nearly 12% from 2024,
and the first week of April saw more than 150,000 head processed, the highest
weekly figure since late 2019. Year-to-date weekly average numbers are sitting
right on par with 2018, about 2% above last year, and still about 10,000 head
below 2019 levels.
Total annual cattle slaughter is expected
to rise from 8.30 million head in 2024 to 8.53 million in 2025, according to
the latest Meat & Livestock Australia industry projections, a rise of just
shy of 3%. The last slaughter year higher than this was 2019, when 9.04 million
cattle were processed.
The last female slaughter ratio data
available from the ABS is the December quarter, with the next release only a
couple of weeks away. It sat then at 52%, above both the five-year average for
the quarter and the historical turn-off indication point of 47%. Again, we have
to go back to 2019 to find a December quarter FSR higher.
Weekly slaughter data from the National
Livestock Reporting Service has been showing the female percentage of the kill
above the 47% mark, and the latest report had it at nearly 55%. While this was
likely impacted by it being a short processing week, it did reflect the
seasonal discrepancy, with Queensland female slaughter at below 47%, while NSW
was at 63%, and Victoria at 76%. The June quarter last year averaged 57% for
NSW and 66% for Victoria.
What does it mean?
The Australian cattle herd has been in official destock since last year, however, the difference between then and 2019 was generally considered to be that peak herd numbers was dictating herd turnoff, rather than the season conditions.
With much of southern Australia now facing continuing dry conditions and flooding rains having fallen in the north, we are likely now looking at different influences on the supply equation than purely herd maturation.
Key Points
- Year-to-date weekly average cattle slaughter sitting 2% above last year.
- Female slaughter on the increase as autumn remains dry in parts of the south.
- Cattle slaughter traditionally rises through the winter.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, ABS, Mecardo
