Softer supply on the run to Australia day boosts market

Flocks of young unshorn lambs seperated, in the sheep yards, from their parents, out the front of the shearing sheds waiting to be shorn, on a small family farm in rural Victoria, Australia

Tighter supply and public holiday shutdowns have incentivised buyers to push the market higher this week. With all lamb categories now averaging higher than$10/kg carcase weight and numbers lagging to begin the year the market looks to be very reactive to stock on hand.

The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI), improved 27¢ to 1086¢/kg cwt, and restockers pushed the market for lighter lambs back to the paddock to 1112¢/kg cwt (a 32¢ increase). Heavy lambs were also 15¢ higher to 1056¢/kg cwt.

It’s been well discussed the changing farm level economics on prime lamb production vs wool production, but buyers look to be making the most of the strong start to the wool season and until this week, the relative affordability of merino lambs at the yards. The national Merino lamb indicator improved 79¢ to 1006¢/kg cwt and still remain discounted to other categories.  The National Mutton Indicator (NMI) is down 2¢ to 748¢/kg cwt.

Total sheep and lamb yardings have had a conservative start to the year, with this weeks indicative number from the NLRS at 273K head (16% lower week on week). Lower than normal supply isn’t new to the lamb trade this last 2 years, but it is a slow start which will be monitored closely. Combined lamb and sheep numbers for the year to date are the lowest for more than 5 seasons. Numbers are down 21% YoY YTD and 5% lower compared to the YTD 5-year average.  It took till April for the late lambs to be in trade condition, but even so there was still a lot more lambs available last year to start the year.  

Slaughter has started higher than the doldrums of winter and spring last season, with combined slaughter at 439K head last week but the lack of numbers continues to weigh on ideal production.  Lamb slaughter was down 12% on this time last year and 22% lower for sheep slaughter.

Next week

The market is very reactive to supply at the moment and looks to be trading either side of the $10/kg mark range. With a public holiday next week, there will be incentives to make up for lost time. 

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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo

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Sheep in paddock in NSW, photo by Adele SMith
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