The Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) and Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Sheep Producer Intentions Survey (SPIS) was released last week, and the results were interesting, to say the least. The finding for breeding flock size seems to be lagging a little, and the flock structure, contrary to sentiment.
The size of the sheep flock seems to be largely unknown at the moment. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released an official number for the cattle population for June 30, 2024, in recent weeks, but the sheep number is still under construction.
The SPIS attempts to put a number on breeding ewe numbers, and also surveys sheep producers on a number of other factors that will impact the flock going forward. Producer sentiment can change quickly, largely around price, but sentiment around wool has been negative since October 2023 and reached a new low in May 2025, at a net level of -35. Sheepmeat industry sentiment came in at a two-and-a-half-year high of +52.
Taking sentiment into account, along with ovine slaughter rates, and what is going on in WA, it was somewhat surprising to see the SPIS peg breeding ewe numbers at 48.88 million head, up 2% on May 2024.
Figure 1 needs to be viewed with caution; the SPIS in its current form only started in October 2022. Before then, different methodologies likely gave different results.
Figure 1 shows that despite the heavily negative sentiment around the Merino industry, and a rapid flock reduction in WA, Merino ewes for joining to Merino rams grew 5.6% from May 2024 to 2025, and a massive 15.7% from May 2023.
The growth in ‘other’ breeding ewes, mainly for lamb production, fell 4.2% from 2024 to 2025. This fits with the drought in Victoria and South Australia, where meat breeds are more concentrated.
The intentions part of the survey asks producers whether they will be increasing, decreasing, or leaving breeding flocks unchanged. With 41% of producers expecting to decrease flocks, and only 23% increasing, the SPIS concluded there will be 9% fewer breeding ewes on hand in May 2026.
What does it mean?
The latest official flock number is now two years old, with the SPIS now being the only guide to the flock, and therefore future lamb, sheep, and wool supplies. Looking at the data and intentions in the May survey results, we would expect sheep and lamb supply to remain strong, as it is coming off strong numbers, with an intention to liquidate.
Key Points
- The Sheep Producer Intentions Survey for May 2025 was released last week.
- Survey data suggests the breeding ewe flocks have grown strongly since May 2024.
- Sheep producers intend to decrease flock sizes over the coming year.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, AWI, Mecardo
