For anyone watching the weekly slaughter report, it will come as no surprise that the cattle kill rose in the March to June quarter this year. A quarterly record for beef production was set, and the Female Slaughter Rate rose to levels we’ve only seen in one period over the past two decades. Looking back at the March to June period, with Australian Bureau of Statistics official figures for the quarter released last week, can give us some insight into what is left in the tank when it comes to cattle slaughter as we head into spring.
Total cattle slaughter for the June quarter was 2.33 million head, a rise of 8% on the previous quarter, and 10% higher year-on-year. At 33% above the five-year average, it was the highest second-quarter turnoff since 2015. Before that, we must go back to 1978 to find a March-June period with a higher cattle slaughter rate. It also meant, thanks mainly to the increase in lotfeeding since those previous highs, that the highest quarterly beef production on record was achieved in the June period, at just shy of 718,000 tonnes.
Despite record production, carcass weights actually fell to 307kg due to both the season and the FSR. The FSR averaged 54.5% in the second quarter, well above both the 47% turnoff marker and the five-year average for the quarter of 50%. The June quarter of 2020 was the last period the FSR was higher than the current figure, with each quarter of 2019 sitting at 55% or higher. Reflecting this, average carcase weights have only been lower than the June figure once since 2020, and that was in the June quarter of last year, when the FSR was at its highest since then – until now.
The first-half FSR is averaging 54%, the same level as it was in 2020. The only time recently it has averaged higher for the first two quarters was in 2019. Historically, the June quarter has the highest FSR for the year, and in 2020, when seasonal conditions took a significant turn for the better by the second half, the FSR dropped from 56% in the June quarter to 48% by the December quarter. The main difference being, of course, is starting cattle numbers, with about 1.5 million more cattle on hand as of June 2024 than June 2019.
The state breakdown of the FSR gives a snapshot of the two different seasons being experienced in Australia this year, as well as how much of a role it has played in high slaughter numbers, rather than having just reached peak production. Both NSW and Victoria averaged record high FSR rates in the June quarter, of 63% and 71%, respectively. For NSW, the 10-year average for the quarter is 51%, and the highest it rose in 2019-2020 was 56%. In Queensland, the FSR was 41%, just below the five-year-average figure, 3% below the same quarter last year, and nowhere near the 54% recorded in 2019.
What does it mean?
Historically, the third quarter is the largest of the year for cattle slaughter, with the five-year-average figure rising 3% from the previous quarter. This would be in line with the total slaughter projected increase year-on-year for 2025 – except that the first half slaughter has already risen 13%. Which takes us again back to 2020, when improved seasonal conditions saw third quarter slaughter fall compared to the previous three months by 7%. A 7% decrease in slaughter would still leave it at historically high levels, but further support prices coming into spring.
Key Points
- Total cattle slaughter was 2.28 million head in the June quarter, producing 2.75 million tonnes of beef – the highest quarter on record.
- First half slaughter is 13% higher year-on-year, with industry projections having it rise just 3% this year.
- The Female Slaughter Rate rose by 2% to 54.5%, its highest point since June 2020.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, MLA, Mecardo
