The sheep and lamb market has been on an upwards trajectory since winter kicked in and the usual end-of-season supply shortening. After trending higher for most of the year, lamb yardings are now back below year-ago levels and close to the five-year average.
Sheep numbers have also dropped, and while
they are historically still high, the weekly average figure has fallen 4% in
the past four weeks. Given the year-to-date turnoff and lack of grass in many sheep-producing
areas, the question is how many are left in the paddock, and what impact that
will have on price.
Looking at the first half of the year, the
combined sheep and lamb weekly yarding average for 2025 so far is sitting at 2%
above last year, and just 39 head lower than the most recent highest year being
2018. It equates to about 420,000 more for the year-to-date than the same time
last year, and nearly 1.5 million more than the five-year-average for the same
period. Comparatively, Meat & Livestock Australia’s latest sheep industry
outlook projected sheep and lamb slaughter (not yardings) to fall by nearly 2
million head this year.
Sheep yardings have obviously been
influenced by the lack of autumn rain in the south, and year-to-date total
throughput is 10% above the same period last year. In Victoria, the weekly
average sheep yarding is sitting below year-ago levels, down 9%, while in NSW
the trend has gone in the other direction, up 8%. WA is the State with the third-largest
sheep yarding average, and has experienced the biggest shift, lifting to its
highest level since 2019 and 33% above 2024. The shift away from the soon-to-be
phased-out live export trade has likely contributed.
With flock numbers starting off at their
highest point in the past decade, sheep supply hasn’t been of huge concern,
even on the back of drought-induced turn-off. The impact that turn-off and the
availability of grass this year have had on the lamb crop is the big question
as we head into spring. Weekly average lamb yardings nationally are right on
par with last year (trending at less than 1% lower), which is about 9% above
the five-year figure. East coast totals are 2% lower year-on-year; however, Victorian
lamb throughput is dropping similarly to their sheep, down 7%. NSW is up just
1%.
What does it mean?
MLA’s March outlook projected lamb slaughter to hold firm this year, however, yardings for the year-to-date are already 2.5% stronger – and we are yet to hit the new season flush. Historically, the weekly average national lamb yarding averages 27% more in the last eight full weeks of the year than in the first 44 weeks.
When we team this information with the record-high prices for finished lambs, it gives an indication that we may be in short supply for the remainder of the year, which will continue to support the market.
Key Points
- Sheep and lamb yardings are averaging close to record levels so far this year, 2% higher than 2024.
- Victorian weekly lamb yardings have fallen by 7% year-on-year, while NSW have risen 1%.
- National sheep weekly yardings are currently 4% higher than 2019, the last significant drought-induced turn-off.
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: NLRS MLA, Mecardo
