The Australian beef herd remains in a destocking phase. The latest livestock data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics was released last week, showing actual cattle slaughter didn’t reach a new high, but beef production did. It also gives us the female slaughter rate, which was 51.8% for the December 2024 quarter, down just marginally from the previous quarter but keeping the annual average above 50%.
Total cattle slaughter for the December quarter was 2.13 million head, taking the 2024 total to 8.3 million. This put slaughter for the last three months of the year 16% higher year-on-year, and 26% above the five-year average for the period. For the year, slaughter was up 18% in 2023, and 20% stronger than the average. While about 10% below the previous cattle slaughter record set in 2014, the 2024 total was 2% higher than Meat & Livestock Australia’s industry forecast and was only just shy of the prediction for 2025.
The female slaughter rate (FSR) for the first quarter of 2024 was just above the 47% marker that we use as an indication of herd destocking, by which reached 53.4% in the second quarter, and fell to 52.2% in September. This saw the year average out at 51%, compared to a five-year average of 49%. The December FSR was 10% above both the five-year average for that period and the same quarter in 2023.
The FSR is historically lower from the September quarter to the December quarter, which we can see from Chart 2. Last year was no different, however, the decrease was less than half a percent, and as we can see it was the first quarter of 2024 which was above the 70% range. This was likely a reflection of dry seasonal conditions in the south, which we can see from the state-by-state FSR. The Victorian FSR actually lifted from the previous quarter and was 7% above the five-year average, while it fell more than twice as much as the national figure in Queensland and was less than 1% above the average.
What does it mean?
All signs so far continue to point towards the herd having reached its peak for this cycle, and that there will be little change in cattle turnoff for the coming year. While seasonal conditions in the south have likely encouraged a slightly higher FSR, it has been countered by rain in the north and we are a long way below the levels seen in the last major weather-induced destock in 2019. The FSR is more in line with the record slaughter year of 2014 – which would further indicate that 2025 numbers will remain around where they are now.
Key Points
- Female slaughter rate still in the destocking phase range as southern dry encourages turnoff.
- Total 2024 cattle slaughter lifts year-on-year, but not in record territory.
- Herd numbers and slaughter are set to stay high in 2025
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia
