All price indicators lost value week on week for the first selling week of November, despite steady total saleyard throughput. Lamb numbers are beginning to pick up in southern saleyards as the late season begins to hit its stride.
Just like the grain harvest currently underway, the season
starts in the north and creeps south as the conditions allow. This year, unlike
traditional years the season for new-season lambs in the south has been quite
late due to the abnormally dry conditions. Forbes and Wagga have had the largest
contribution to the ESTLI regarding volume since the start of July leading into
the new season. This week was no different, Wagga was the largest contributing
saleyard to the ESTLI with 31% of the 45.4k head yardings coming through their
yards. For the same selling week last year, the largest volume contribution was
Ballarat. Ballarat did experience their largest sale for the season this week,
with yardings increasing 10k head in total. Lamb yardings at Ballarat were up
41% and despite the yardings boom and a public holiday during the week, they
had the highest average value for the ESTLI at 855¢/kg, a 7% premium to the
indicator which closed the week at 798¢/kg.
The National Heavy Lamb Indicator fell in value week on week
by 3% to finish at 818¢/kg. Heavy lamb yardings also fell by 19% for the week.
Economists would say this should support prices, but when looking at top
contributing saleyard market reports, demand was varied like the quality of the
pens causing the lower prices.
The National Mutton Indicator closed the week 3% down on the
week prior at 312¢/kg, and yardings were almost flat with a 1% decrease. Supply
of mutton has been elevated, bridging the gap with the delayed new season lambs
in the south. Yardings for Mutton in October were 39% higher year on year.
Wagga’s saleyard report said that not all buyers were in attendance, it
averaged slightly below the indicator but had the highest volume contribution.
Initial yardings data from the NRLS show an overall fall in
yardings of 1%. Looking at the split, Lambs rose by 2% and sheep fell by 7%.
NSW Lamb yardings fell by 13% for the week, whilst Victoria’s lifted by 20%, SA
and Tasmania also had large increases week on week.
Sheep slaughter levels were down by 6% and lamb levels
lifted by 2% for the week prior when compared to the week before that, so
overall total slaughter was down 1%. NSW lamb slaughter lifted 11% whilst sheep
fell by 13% indicating some processors swung to the younger articles. East
coast lamb slaughter levels were almost the exact same compared to the same
week last week, sheep however was 28% higher.
Next week
The latest forecast from the BOM has rain falling on both the east and west coasts next week, which will help with the confidence of restockers. Southern areas of the East Coast that were fortunate to get some October rain have started responding to it, allowing growers to get their stock ready for sale, so expect to see southern saleyard volumes increasing.
Contracting supply and rain were key ingredients in a much stronger lamb and sheep market this week. Seasonal conditions have conspired with robust processing demand
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly livestock slaughter and meat production figures for September last week. The numbers explain a lot about
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In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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Southern supply begins to gallop
Just like the grain harvest currently underway, the season starts in the north and creeps south as the conditions allow. This year, unlike traditional years the season for new-season lambs in the south has been quite late due to the abnormally dry conditions. Forbes and Wagga have had the largest contribution to the ESTLI regarding volume since the start of July leading into the new season. This week was no different, Wagga was the largest contributing saleyard to the ESTLI with 31% of the 45.4k head yardings coming through their yards. For the same selling week last year, the largest volume contribution was Ballarat. Ballarat did experience their largest sale for the season this week, with yardings increasing 10k head in total. Lamb yardings at Ballarat were up 41% and despite the yardings boom and a public holiday during the week, they had the highest average value for the ESTLI at 855¢/kg, a 7% premium to the indicator which closed the week at 798¢/kg.
The National Heavy Lamb Indicator fell in value week on week by 3% to finish at 818¢/kg. Heavy lamb yardings also fell by 19% for the week. Economists would say this should support prices, but when looking at top contributing saleyard market reports, demand was varied like the quality of the pens causing the lower prices.
The National Mutton Indicator closed the week 3% down on the week prior at 312¢/kg, and yardings were almost flat with a 1% decrease. Supply of mutton has been elevated, bridging the gap with the delayed new season lambs in the south. Yardings for Mutton in October were 39% higher year on year. Wagga’s saleyard report said that not all buyers were in attendance, it averaged slightly below the indicator but had the highest volume contribution.
Initial yardings data from the NRLS show an overall fall in yardings of 1%. Looking at the split, Lambs rose by 2% and sheep fell by 7%. NSW Lamb yardings fell by 13% for the week, whilst Victoria’s lifted by 20%, SA and Tasmania also had large increases week on week.
Sheep slaughter levels were down by 6% and lamb levels lifted by 2% for the week prior when compared to the week before that, so overall total slaughter was down 1%. NSW lamb slaughter lifted 11% whilst sheep fell by 13% indicating some processors swung to the younger articles. East coast lamb slaughter levels were almost the exact same compared to the same week last week, sheep however was 28% higher.
Next week
The latest forecast from the BOM has rain falling on both the east and west coasts next week, which will help with the confidence of restockers. Southern areas of the East Coast that were fortunate to get some October rain have started responding to it, allowing growers to get their stock ready for sale, so expect to see southern saleyard volumes increasing.
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Data sources:MLA, BOM, Mecardo
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Defying seasonality
Contracting supply and rain were key ingredients in a much stronger lamb and sheep market this week. Seasonal conditions have conspired with robust processing demand
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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly livestock slaughter and meat production figures for September last week. The numbers explain a lot about
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.