Supply is creeping higher, but markets bounced back this week. The first few batches of new season lambs have been variable, and the market response has followed suit, indicating there might be a wide range for price to head now that spring has sprung.
Trade lamb throughput was even week on week, but demand improved as the National Trade Lamb indicator improved 45¢ to 1192¢/kg cwt. All lamb indicators improved this week but Light and Merino lamb indicators were the big gainers this week.
Good quality heavier lambs dominated the yards in Dubbo; meanwhile, Wagga saw a wide range of quality in the offering, which resulted in “selective” bidding from buyers. Forbes lamb supply surged by 13000 head on last week’s yarding, and the market firmed for both new season and older lambs. A small yarding in Ballarat saw a scramble for the few heavy lambs available. A Stronger quality offering in Hamilton saw bids improve to match.
This week on Mecardo, Jamie-Lee Oldfield had a look at sheep slaughter trends to inform what we might expect for mutton supply and pricing for the upcoming spring (read more here). Mutton prices are already historically strong, and while supply could fall further in the second half of the year, strong starting flock numbers mean throughput will still remain relatively high. Southern pasture growth and lower sheep supply to the yards in spring would support mutton prices somewhere in the winter price range we’ve seen, assuming processors are still keen on mutton for export markets.
August is typically the first month of elevated mutton demand from China, and whilst volumes did increase MoM, the 2374 tonnes shipped were 54% below the 5-year average for August. This week, the national mutton indicator tracked sideways at 710¢/kg despite a drop in numbers. Considering prices are currently 125% higher than this time last year, appetite for mutton is still strong, but prices likely need to come back a bit for export volumes to lift.
Last week, sheep slaughter tracked marginally higher WoW (driven mainly by increased WA kill), meanwhile, lamb slaughter dropped another 21K head to 351,669 head nationally.
The week ahead….
Supply will increase in the coming weeks, which will test the resilience of $11/kg lambs cwt.
Australian sheep flock estimates for the next three years are now more closely reflecting industry insights and assumptions after consecutive poor seasonal conditions in many
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Spring has sprung
Trade lamb throughput was even week on week, but demand improved as the National Trade Lamb indicator improved 45¢ to 1192¢/kg cwt. All lamb indicators improved this week but Light and Merino lamb indicators were the big gainers this week.
Good quality heavier lambs dominated the yards in Dubbo; meanwhile, Wagga saw a wide range of quality in the offering, which resulted in “selective” bidding from buyers. Forbes lamb supply surged by 13000 head on last week’s yarding, and the market firmed for both new season and older lambs. A small yarding in Ballarat saw a scramble for the few heavy lambs available. A Stronger quality offering in Hamilton saw bids improve to match.
This week on Mecardo, Jamie-Lee Oldfield had a look at sheep slaughter trends to inform what we might expect for mutton supply and pricing for the upcoming spring (read more here). Mutton prices are already historically strong, and while supply could fall further in the second half of the year, strong starting flock numbers mean throughput will still remain relatively high. Southern pasture growth and lower sheep supply to the yards in spring would support mutton prices somewhere in the winter price range we’ve seen, assuming processors are still keen on mutton for export markets.
August is typically the first month of elevated mutton demand from China, and whilst volumes did increase MoM, the 2374 tonnes shipped were 54% below the 5-year average for August. This week, the national mutton indicator tracked sideways at 710¢/kg despite a drop in numbers. Considering prices are currently 125% higher than this time last year, appetite for mutton is still strong, but prices likely need to come back a bit for export volumes to lift.
Last week, sheep slaughter tracked marginally higher WoW (driven mainly by increased WA kill), meanwhile, lamb slaughter dropped another 21K head to 351,669 head nationally.
The week ahead….
Supply will increase in the coming weeks, which will test the resilience of $11/kg lambs cwt.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, NLRS, Mecardo
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Have any questions or comments?
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.