Spring is right around the corner, and suckers have started to hit the saleyards, albeit in small numbers so far. Seasonal conditions could see significant throughput delays in some areas, but those that are ready have received historically strong prices. We’ve referred to 2019 plenty of times this year, when the sector was last in turnoff, prompted by seasonal conditions. Now that southern Australia has received some rain relief, and given year-to-date slaughter, how will the supply situation play out in the spring?
National lamb slaughter is averaging 427,800 head a week for 2025 so far, according to the National Livestock Reporting Service figures, which is 10% below the same time last year. Year-to-date slaughter from those figures is also 10% lower than in 2024 and the five-year average for the same period. Historically, the remainder of the year’s weekly slaughter figures are 3% higher than the first seven months.
According to Meat & Livestock Australia’s last industry projections, released in March, lamb slaughter was expected to decrease by less than 1% year-on-year in 2025. However, this was before a failed autumn in many sheep production areas, likely impacting both numbers on farm and the timeline for turning off lambs. ABS Livestock Production figures released today once again take us back to 2019. ABS lamb slaughter was 6.6 million head in the three months to June. And while it was a 6% year-on-year decrease, it also represented a 2% drop from the January to March period.
It was the first time since 2019 that second-quarter lamb slaughter was lower than the first quarter. In 2019, third-quarter slaughter was lower again, and even the fourth quarter did not get back to first-quarter levels. In 2019, second-half slaughter was 10% lower than the first half of that year. Last year, June quarter slaughter was the highest point of the year, while December slaughter was the lowest, and it rose by nearly 9% in March 2025. In 2024, second-half slaughter was also 10% lower than the first half.
Looking at MLA’s sheep producer survey, breeding ewes on hand as of the end of April were 2% higher year-on-year, while lambs on hand to sell were just slightly lower, by less than 1%. Again, a failed autumn has occurred for many producers since filling in the survey, which may not have impacted the number of lambs, but the trajectory of their turnoff.
What does it mean?
If we continue on the same trend as 2019, supply might not be as strong as previously expected come springtime. While lamb numbers are likely still strong on farm, they will be finished later and spill further into next year, which we have seen before in similar seasons. And while historically high prices could encourage higher producer turn-off at lighter weights, they will still need to be fed to slaughter weight. It should hold off much significant downward market pressure in the short term.
Key Points
- ABS livestock production lamb slaughter figures fell in the second quarter for the first time since 2019.
- Year-to-date lamb slaughter trending at 10% lower year-on-year, despite projection being a dip of just 2%.
- Lambs are likely late to finish again; however, historically high prices could impact sales.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, ABS, Mecardo
