While we await the ABARES September crop report for an update on expected yields from the coming harvest, we can get an idea from the CSIRO’s Wheatcast forecast. Wheatcast yields are updated every two weeks and are a valuable tool for those looking at potential production.
‘Wheatcast’ is a yield forecasting service developed by the CSIRO using weather, climate, and soil data, along with other inputs to forecast wheat yields (see more here). Wheatcast forecasts yields at a state level and provides a potential range if conditions from here are good or bad.
The latest Wheatcast forecast has pegged national wheat yields at 2.21t/ha. This forecast is down on the ABARES June crop report, which was forecasting 2.42t/ha (Figure 1). While 210kgs per hectare doesn’t sound like much, if we multiply it across the total planted area of 12.63 million hectares, it has the CSIRO taking 2.65mmt off the national yield.
The Wheatcast forecast puts the total wheat yield at 27.9mmt, 9.4% lower than 2025–26. The range the CSIRO is expecting is 1.8–3t/ha. This is a massive variation, but the range with a stronger probability of occurring is 1.9–2.5t/ha. Have a look at the report to see the explanation, but it basically means there is a greater chance of downside than upside in yield forecasts.
There are some good maps on the Wheatcast, including where the most uncertainty is around expected yields. Much of WA’s yields are largely locked in, with a narrower range of possible yields from 1.5–2.1t/ha. Victoria has a large range of 1.9–3.6t/ha, while SA is similarly large.
NSW still needs rain to finish crops in the south, with high levels of uncertainty seeing a possible yield range similar to that of Victoria.
If nothing else, the Wheatcast report tells us there is still plenty of water to go under the bridge, or more accurately, fall from the sky, to narrow yield forecasts for the wheat crop this year. The late autumn break for many regions has crops running on hand-to-mouth moisture, and it will need to keep coming.
What does it mean?
With northern hemisphere wheat crops largely harvested, focus will turn to the southern hemisphere, and more interest will be taken in our crops. Current local wheat prices are suggesting we will again have a good exportable surplus, but Wheatcast tells us there is more upside in local basis than downside.
Key Points
- The CSIRO ‘Wheatcast’ report has pegged wheat yields lower than ABARES Crop Report.
- The Wheatcast report shows there is still plenty of possible variation in wheat yields.
- With more downside in yields than upside, markets might find support.
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: CSIRO, ABS, ABARES, Mecardo
