It is not often that we get strong slaughter and high prices coinciding. This spring, we are seeing this strange confluence, with export demand being the obvious driver. Here we look at how slaughter might play out for the rest of the year, and what this might do to prices.
Cattle slaughter has barely missed a beat in winter and spring to date. Five years of herd growth has culminated in cattle slaughter levels not seen since 2019. Figure 1 shows east coast cattle slaughter tracking well ahead of last year and the five-year average for much of 2025.
The raw figures from Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) weekly slaughter numbers put year-to-date east coast cattle slaughter 11% above 2024, and a massive 31% higher than the five-year average.
The extraordinary thing is, we have just hit record prices for slaughter cows, while running at very strong slaughter levels. Prices for cows are higher now than they were when slaughter rates were at their tightest in 2022 (Figure 2).
Heavy steer prices are not far off their peaks, but as we know, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) is well off its highs.
The latest MLA Cattle Industry Projections, released earlier this month, have 2025 pegged as the peak of cattle slaughter, forecasting just over 9 million head to go over the hooks. The forecast increase in slaughter in 2025 is 8.6% on 2024.
If we are to hit MLA’s forecast, cattle slaughter will have to fall from current levels. In order to hit the 8.6% increase, cattle slaughter would need to fall to around 140,000 head per week up until late December. Looking at Figure 1, this would put cattle slaughter at similar levels to last year.
We can also see in Figure 1 that cattle slaughter historically increases in the last two months of the year. As such, it would take a counter-seasonal decline in cattle slaughter to hit the slaughter target.
What does it mean?
It is hard to see cattle slaughter weakening from here to the end of the year, but if it does, it would give prices another boost. The recent jump in price, despite steady slaughter, might have been required to maintain supply. It remains to be seen if processors are prepared to keep pushing prices higher to maintain cattle flow.
Key Points
- Cattle slaughter has been at its strongest level in five years in 2025.
- Very strong cattle prices, despite high supply, is an indication of strong beef demand.
- To hit slaughter forecasts, weekly rates would have to fall, further strengthening prices.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, MLA, Mecardo
