It may have taken producers a bit longer to get them there, but it would seem that 2025 has opened with an abundance of slaughter-ready lambs. Lamb throughput has remained in record territory so far this year, with figures more akin to the usual late spring sucker rush than the midst of summer. Sheep slaughter has also remained elevated, which together paints a positive picture for sustained increased capacity (and consumer demand), but it has meant that producer returns have gone in the other direction.
According to National Livestock Reporting Service figures, the first four weeks of slaughter data for 2025 – which is the most current available – has throughput at more than 20% above the five-year average for those same four weeks. Looking at the averages, the first week in November is when annual lamb slaughter peaks both in the five and 10-year numbers, however, the latest slaughter weekly data surpasses that by 5%. That also wasn’t when lamb slaughter peaked in 2024, with May hitting new highs with five consecutive weeks with throughput above 500,000.
The heavy lamb indicator has obviously felt the pinch from this historically high supply so far in 2025, but that is only when compared to where the price finished off last year, which was itself in record territory. The last heavy lamb indicator price for 2024 was 994¢/kg, its strongest level since the spring of 2021. However, it was down to 858¢/kg by the opening report of 2025 and has only been headed in one direction since, currently sitting at 796¢/kg. Year-on-year, however, that is still 180¢/kg stronger, and it is 12% above the 10-year average. It is slightly lower (2%) than the five-year average, but that data does include record highs.
If we look at the charts, I’ve included 2016 figures as well as year-on-year averages, as that was the last time lamb slaughter was close to current levels at this time of year. The 2015-16 period is also one we have been using as a comparison to where the sheep flock cycle is up to – autumn rainfall this year will dictate if we carry on to 2017. But for now, we can see slaughter remained above average levels through to the middle of the year in 2016, and the heavy indicator also felt the price pinch early on, before lifting and holding firm.
What does it mean?
Total lamb slaughter is forecast to fall in 2025, and early high slaughter is likely a reflection of a longer or delayed lamb finishing season rather than a sign of what is to come in the longer term. Short term, we know there are likely still plenty of lambs left to come through, but it should bode well for the heavy lamb price as winter approaches, as it is already showing good resilience given the supply.
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Key Points
- Lamb slaughter starts 2025 stronger yet again, with the first four weeks 12% higher year-on-year and the latest weekly lamb slaughter data available in the top 10 on record.
- The heavy lamb price has felt the pressure of the increased supply, losing more than 60¢/kg in the past month, but remains above average levels.
- Despite this, most forecasts have lamb slaughter finishing 2025 lower year-on-year, which should bode well for producer returns.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia