Lamb prices ended the week lower in most states. It does seem that supply is driving the price moves, with last week’s price improvements on the back of a sharp drop in yardings, and early reports suggesting bigger numbers of young lambs finding their way to Victorian yards this week.
For the week ending the 10th of September, just 135,801 lambs were yarded in the east. This was a 31% drop on the week prior and 11% below the five-year average for this point in the season. NSW was a major driver, 51,082 head fewer lambs were yarded in the state than the week prior. The story was much the same for sheep yardings.
Slaughter did increase slightly last week, however combined sheep and lamb slaughter continued to track below last year’s level and the seasonal average. Sheep and lamb slaughter was 13% below the five-year average.
The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) dropped 17ȼ on the week to sit at 928ȼ/kg cwt. The market was also weaker in the west with the Western Australian Trade Lamb Indicator dropping 16ȼ to 739ȼ/kg cwt.
Restocker lambs in Victoria and South Australia enjoyed stronger demand, and stronger prices. However, restocker prices eased 32ȼ in NSW. Angus Brown looked at the lamb trading equation this week (view here) and despite being close to record highs, store lambs look like reasonable buying, providing finished prices don’t end up lower than 800ȼ.
Mutton prices continued to fall this week, with the National Mutton Indicator dropping another 7ȼ to 608ȼ/kg cwt.
The week ahead….
There is a way to go yet, in rising supply, before chains are full and prices come under significant pressure. It is the surge in Victorian lambs we see during September to November that is usually the catalyst for the ESTLI to reach its seasonal low so a big step down in price isn’t likely to come until the Victorian throughput starts to swell.
Despite a decrease in yardings week on week, the tightening of supply was not enough to support prices. Middle East airspace closures impacted demand at
Sheep producers are making way for the winter crop and getting ahead of the upcoming public holiday sales disruption. Close to 250,000 lambs flooded to
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Supply slipping behind
For the week ending the 10th of September, just 135,801 lambs were yarded in the east. This was a 31% drop on the week prior and 11% below the five-year average for this point in the season. NSW was a major driver, 51,082 head fewer lambs were yarded in the state than the week prior. The story was much the same for sheep yardings.
Slaughter did increase slightly last week, however combined sheep and lamb slaughter continued to track below last year’s level and the seasonal average. Sheep and lamb slaughter was 13% below the five-year average.
The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) dropped 17ȼ on the week to sit at 928ȼ/kg cwt. The market was also weaker in the west with the Western Australian Trade Lamb Indicator dropping 16ȼ to 739ȼ/kg cwt.
Restocker lambs in Victoria and South Australia enjoyed stronger demand, and stronger prices. However, restocker prices eased 32ȼ in NSW. Angus Brown looked at the lamb trading equation this week (view here) and despite being close to record highs, store lambs look like reasonable buying, providing finished prices don’t end up lower than 800ȼ.
Mutton prices continued to fall this week, with the National Mutton Indicator dropping another 7ȼ to 608ȼ/kg cwt.
The week ahead….
There is a way to go yet, in rising supply, before chains are full and prices come under significant pressure. It is the surge in Victorian lambs we see during September to November that is usually the catalyst for the ESTLI to reach its seasonal low so a big step down in price isn’t likely to come until the Victorian throughput starts to swell.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, NLRS, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Light lambs grounded
Despite a decrease in yardings week on week, the tightening of supply was not enough to support prices. Middle East airspace closures impacted demand at
US lamb demand stronger
The US has held the mantle as our largest market for lamb exports since lambs got very expensive back in 2020. As a single destination,
Disruption ahead so supply shuffles forward
Sheep producers are making way for the winter crop and getting ahead of the upcoming public holiday sales disruption. Close to 250,000 lambs flooded to
Sheep Live export lifts in 2023 despite uncertainty
Live sheep exports rose year-on-year for the first time in five years in 2023 but were still historically low. And while good numbers headed offshore
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.