Supply slips further as focus moves from light to heavy

Flock of sheep in dry paddock

The lamb market continued to experience good support this week, with the exception of light lambs, which are now the only category sitting lower in price than they did a month ago. Mutton numbers decreased and the national indicator held just shy of firm, which could have been an indication of what was available rather than true diminishing in demand, although talk of extended winter shutdowns for some processors could also be seeing the foot come off the pedal already.

Sticking with sheep, and the National Mutton Indicator closed the week at 818¢/kg. This was heavily influenced by Katanning in the west having the largest yarding, with 19% of the NMI throughput, yet averaged well below the national price, at 677¢/kg. Comparatively, Wagga Wagga, Forbes and Yass, all in NSW and all regions which received rain this week, were the next three biggest yardings, making up nearly 30% of the national throughput, and all averaged between 885¢/kg and 890¢/kg. Ballarat, Vic, was the standout in returns, however, averaging 939¢/kg for mutton, and the National Livestock Reporting Service quoting it as strong from the start, up $20/head from the previous week and reaching a new record for the yard of $390/head.

Combined yardings lifted week-on-week but remain low compared to current averages. If we look at the National Livestock Reporting Service weekly figures for the month of May, of which yesterday was the last saleyard trading day, it equals just over 631,000 head. We haven’t had any month with a lower total for at least the past two years. Similarly, last week’s total sheep and lamb slaughter was also the lowest figure in the past two years (excluding Easter week), and 28% below the same week in 2025. Breaking it down, lamb slaughter is 20% lower while the sheep kill is back 48%.

After sitting at its lowest point since February for the past couple of weeks, the national Heavy Lamb Indicator had the biggest increase this week, increasing 38¢/kg to 1224¢/kg, despite a slight increase in throughput of eligible stock. Wagga was the major yarding and averaged 20¢/kg more than the national price, with the NLRS quoting competition as “robust” and heavy lamb prices rising $15-$21/head. While heavy lambs are now operating at the lowest year-on-year premium of all major categories, just 12% higher, it still sits at 48% above the five-year average.

Light lambs fell the furthest, back 11¢/kg, and this time Katanning averaged above the national price, surpassing the indicator by 3¢/kg, despite reports of mixed quality due to higher numbers. Forbes had a third of all light lambs and also averaged well above the indicator at 1162¢/kg. Across the indicator the lightest category, sub 16kg, performed the best, rising by more than 30¢/kg, while the 16-18kg dropped more than 50¢/kg, which could show more demand from buyers looking at a longer-term investment rather than finishing over winter.

Next week

Supply trends over the past two years have seen sheep and lamb yardings remain more elevated through winter on the back of consecutive failed autumns in many sheep producing regions. With a better season being experienced by many this year, we will likely see this trend bucked and supply shorten up further as we head into the colder months.

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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo

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