Supply stalls and slaughter slips further

sheep

More records fell in the lamb market this week as high prices failed to draw increased numbers, showing that the winter supply shortage has well and truly kicked in. Prices continued their rise across all lamb categories as breeders and traders alike no doubt start to do the sums on where they might end up in the spring, which is also keeping the mutton price firm.

The Heavy Lamb Indicator closed the week at 1159c/kg, which represents a near $1/kg rise in the past four weeks. Heavy lambs broke a per head record at Forbes this week when a pen sold for $454, but the National Livestock Reporting Service quoted lambs as not well finished at a number of yards and therefore not reaching the higher prices, and increasing competition for good quality stock.

Nationally trade lambs finished at 1195c/kg, an increase of 35c/kg for the week. The Eastern States price was higher again, at 1209c/kg, with Wagga Wagga and Forbes yarding nearly half of the trade lamb throughput for the week and averaging 1259c/kg and 1228c/kg. NLRS reported supermarkets and processors were in strong competition with each other at Wagga, but some were only actively buying shorn lambs, while at Forbes, new season lambs sold from $232 to $312/head.

The mutton price held fairly firm nationally at 690c/kg, putting it at about 30% above the five-year-average. Again, a majority of saleyard throughput for sheep came from NSW, and the average for that state was higher at 704c/kg. Mutton and Merino Lambs were the only two categories to see an increase in numbers this week, with an extra 5000 sheep going through the indicator.

Restocker and light lambs had the most significant contraction in supply and rose 5c/kg and 7c/kg, respectively. Overall, lamb yardings dropped by about 20,000 head from the previous week, while sheep were back just 2000 head. National slaughter fell by more than 50,000 head and now trends significantly below year-ago levels for the first time in 2025, nearly back in the five-year-average zone.

The week ahead….

It looks like the lamb market has only got one direction to go between now and when we see new season lambs arrive in significant numbers, which will likely be later than usual, given the season in the south. This should continue to support the sheep market as well, and numbers might contract there as grass starts to grow in the coming weeks. What will be interesting to watch is if current prices and winter rainfall are enough to see restocker competition on lighter lamb types in the coming weeks.

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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo. 

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