High herd numbers and less than ideal seasonal conditions in parts of the country, teamed with seasonal ramping up of activity post-wet season, has meant cattle turn-off has increased substantially in the past two months. Nationally, Australia had the largest monthly yarding of cows on record in March, and Meat & Livestock Australia are now reporting last week’s total national yarding figure at over 111,000 head, likely another record high.
Putting current throughput into perspective proves difficult for the month of April, with Easter falling on different weeks depending on the year, with last week’s yarding sitting at about 150% above the 10-year-average due to it often being a short week. However, we can look comparatively at other periods where yardings have surpassed 100,000 head as they have done for the past two weeks, and we have to go back to 2018-19 to find it prior to May. This time last year, the year-to-date average weekly yarding was about 67,000 head, and this year it is currently sitting above 80,000 head. Total yarding numbers for the year so far are 15% higher than 2025, and 13% above 2018.
While the cattle market has been feeling the supply surge across the board, cow prices have come under particular pressure, losing 22% in the past six weeks. Closing last week at 298¢/kg, the national processor cow indicator is now only about 10¢/kg above year-ago levels, and 4% higher than the five-year-average. At a 20% premium to the 10-year figure, historically of course it is still quite strong, and sits at its second highest point for this particular week. Traditionally, the cow price does fall during this period through to July, but we can see from the chart that the dip has been more dramatic over the past two years, mainly due to a lack of autumn rainfall.
The difference between this year and say 2018-19, when we last saw autumn yardings in this range, is that the seasonal pinch is a lot less widespread, and demand out of the US doesn’t seem likely to diminish anytime soon, potentially putting more of a floor in the cow price than we’ve seen before, regardless of restocker demand. The US imported lean beef price, while quoted as “steady to lower” by Steiner this month due to ample supply coming from both Australia and South America, is still operating at historically high levels, closing in again on AUS$11/kg.
What does it mean?
The five-year-average shows the national processor cow indicator losing a further 4% between now and July, when it starts to rise again. This would take the current price to about 283¢/kg, with 2021-22 the only years where the winter low has been dearer than this. Some better late than never autumn rainfall could impact both the surging supply and restocker interest, but outside of that, we can see from chart 3 that the 90cl price should aid in keeping the cow price within the usual discount range.
Key Points
- The national cow price has lost 33% since the beginning of the year, now sitting just above the five-year-average.
- March was the highest monthly cow yarding in history, putting pressure on the price.
- Supply and demand driven by seasonal turn-off as export demand and price remains resilient.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, Steiner Consulting Group, Mecardo
