The October Sheep Producer Intentions Survey (SPIS) provides some very important information regarding the number of lambs on the ground, the type of lambs, and how future supply might play out. There are some interesting figures in this year’s October survey that go against the anecdotal evidence.
There is a disclaimer on the third page of the survey results saying care should be taken when comparing data since October 2022 with that from before that survey. This is due to changes in how data was collected.
We like to look at lamb marking rates over the long term, so we’ve included data from earlier in 2022 on our chart. Additionally, marking rates used to be reported in the February and June survey reports as well, which we can see on the chart. October is always the largest, with a vast proportion of lambs marked in late winter and spring.
Figure 1 shows the number of lambs marked according to the SPIS results. The SPIS data shows there were 2%, or nearly half a million, more lambs marked in 2025 compared to 2024. Merino lambs were down 2% to 8.35 million head. ‘Other’ breeds, which we’ve lumped together but you can see the data in the report, were up 7% to 17.17 million head. This is the largest number of ‘other’ lambs marked on record.
Compared to October 2022, which is when this survey format started, Merino lambs marked are down 13% and ‘Other’ lambs are up 17%.
According to the SPIS, the number of Merino ewes joined for Merino lambs was actually up 2%, but marking rates fell to 74%, which led to a fall in numbers. Merino marking rates have fallen in each of the last three years, having been 88% in 2022.
‘Other’ marking rates are more consistent. This year, ‘Other’ ewes marked at 107%, and have hovered between 106% and 108% for the last four years.
The number of ewes joined to produce lambs has increased every year for the last three years (Figure 3). The October survey has 1.5 million head more ewes joined, an increase of 5%. The increase since 2022 is 11.7%. Most of the increase has been in ‘Other’ ewes, up 18% in three years, while Merinos are also up, increasing 4%.
Another increase in breeding ewes and lambs marked seems counterintuitive. We know sheep slaughter in 2024 to 25 was at 18 year highs, as was lamb slaughter. We also know WA has been in flock liquidation. Productivity improvements from the shift to crossbred sheep can explain some of the increase in numbers, but it would have to be massive to outweigh the strong slaughter rates.
What does it mean?
Taking the SPIS numbers at face value, lamb supply should be strong over the coming months. More lambs marked, combined with much lower slaughter rates since July, suggest lamb slaughter should rise to levels higher than the record rates seen last autumn.
The situation is further complicated by the expected sales section of the SPIS, which says 44% of the 2025 lamb crop will be sold in the first half of 2026. This suggests early 2026 should see much lower slaughter rates. If more lambs were marked and slaughter was much lower, ewe lamb retention for breeding must be way up.
Key Points
- The October SPIS shows increased ewes joined and lambs marked.
- The proportion of merino ewes joined to merinos continues to fall.
- Anecdotal reports and slaughter rates don’t fit well with SPIS results.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, AWI, Mecardo
