In any search for world sheep or wool information, the Chinese sheep flock and wool clip come up as the largest. Detail is important when seeking to understand the importance of such data. With that in mind lets take a closer look at sheep and wool numbers from China.
The bulk of sheep in China are in the provinces that border Mongolia, on the eastern edge of the Eurasian steppe. Figure 1 shows annual sheep and goat numbers for China from the mid-1990s to 2023. Since 2018 the Chinese sheep flock has increased by 20% (to 193 million head in 2023) while the Chinese goat flock has decreased by 4% to 129 million head. By way of comparison, in Mongolia (immediately west of the major Chinese sheep provinces) sheep numbers (to 2024) have fallen by 20% since 2018 and goats’ numbers by 16%. A run of dzuds (read more here), which are severe winters with little snow and spring droughts, have badly impacted Mongolian sheep and goat numbers. Dzuds are a recurring natural disaster in Mongolia that can cause widespread livestock deaths.
World wool production tends to be reported in greasy terms, and in doing so the Chinese wool clip is slightly larger than the Australian woolclip. However, at the risk of harping on a subject, “wools ain’t wools”. Figure 2 shows the official breakup of the Chinese clip into three-micron groupings, annually from the mid-1990s to 2023. From a wool industry perspective, the 25 micron and finer category is the one of interest. An interesting trend is shown here, with the volume of the finer part of the Chinese clip down 41% in the past decade despite rising sheep numbers. The finer proportion of the Chinese clip has fallen from 31-33% a decade ago to around 20%. The volume of what Australia would call crossbred wool (25 to 35 micron) has risen by 43% in the past decade, however, the rise in sheep numbers has not been matched by overall wool production.
To put the volume of the Chinese wool clip in perspective. Figure 3 compares the clean volume of the Chinese clip (assuming an average yield of 42%) to the clean Australian volume. In the 1990s the total Chinese clip was around 30% of the size of the Australian clip. It is now around 70% of the Australian clip.
Figure 4 narrows the comparison down to the 25 micron and finer categories – which is mainly merino in Australia. In China, the quality of this section of the clip is difficult to ascertain, with some feedback indicating only 7-10% of it is comparable to Australian merino quality. As it is the fine Chinese component of the clip amounts in total to around 18% of the comparable Australian micron categories. For the crossbred section, it is a different story with the Chinese volume (clean terms) being around one and a half times the volume of the Australian crossbred clip. Again, the quality of the Chinese crossbred clip is indeterminate, keeping in mind the quality of the Australian crossbred clip has been deteriorating
What does it mean?
The large Chinese sheep flock is somewhat misleading when it comes to wool production. The recent increase in sheep numbers has not been reflected in wool production implying a focus on meat production. From a merino wool perspective Chinese production at best measures around 18% of Australian production or, if anecdotal evidence is considered, comparable merino quality volumes could be as low as 2-3% of Australian volumes.
Have any questions or comments?
Key Points
- The finer component of the Chinese wool clip has been declining in both absolute and relative terms during the past decade.
- This decline is in spite of an increase in the Chinese flock since 2018 of 20%.
- The fine component of the Chinese wool clip amounts to 18% of the comparable micron categories in the Australian clip, before allowing for lower quality
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: NBS, NSO, IWTO, AWTA, AWEX, ICS, Mecardo