The fact that the wheat market has been relatively unchanged week on week doesn’t imply the market has been without volatility. After a slightly bearish USDA report, wheat was supported by some better-than-expected US export data as bargain hunters came out of the woodwork.
This month’s USDA report largely lifted global stocks on the back of reduced demand from China. Previously the USDA had penciled in 23mmt of corn demand and about 12mmt of wheat demand. The agency now pegs China’s 2024-25 corn and wheat imports at 10 million and 8 million metric tons respectively and down 57% and 32% from the average volumes of the previous four seasons.
China’s stated aim of becoming self sufficient is starting to take shape. They have recently dropped a ban on GM technology in a bid to improve domestic production. This is expected to take some time to be achieved, but the State has clearly stated aims to be self-reliant on staple food and feed products like wheat, corn and rice.
The weekly report wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the new raft of tariffs and counter tariff’s distorting the marketplace. In a blow to Canadian producers, China levied 25% on pork and fish and a whopping 100% import tariff on canola oil and meal. It is important to note that the Chinese import tariffs are not targeting canola seed – which is by far the bigger of the canola commodity business into China… yet. The anti-dumping investigation is still ongoing.
ICE canola prices (May ’25) have lost CA$68/t for the week which has flowed on to GM prices here. It feels like the reaction in the market is overblown as the Chinese will still import seed for their own crush, so the tap hasn’t been completely shut off. European (MATIF) canola futures also took a hit on the premise of cheaper Canadian supplies where the GM can supplement the non-GM product.
Overnight, President Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol imports. Opening a new front in the tariff disputes was viewed poorly, with stock markets feeling the pressure. The S&P 500 finished the day more than 10% below its record high, reached last month.
The week ahead….
April 2 looms large on the calendar as the date when Trump decides whether to implement the broad ranging tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Of concern, is the possibility that the tariff’s will go further and target other agricultural imports, including our beef and lamb sector.
Give or take a few cents, the US wheat market close last night was relatively unchanged for the week. Some supportive news, including better-than-expected new
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The hits keep coming
This month’s USDA report largely lifted global stocks on the back of reduced demand from China. Previously the USDA had penciled in 23mmt of corn demand and about 12mmt of wheat demand. The agency now pegs China’s 2024-25 corn and wheat imports at 10 million and 8 million metric tons respectively and down 57% and 32% from the average volumes of the previous four seasons.
China’s stated aim of becoming self sufficient is starting to take shape. They have recently dropped a ban on GM technology in a bid to improve domestic production. This is expected to take some time to be achieved, but the State has clearly stated aims to be self-reliant on staple food and feed products like wheat, corn and rice.
The weekly report wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the new raft of tariffs and counter tariff’s distorting the marketplace. In a blow to Canadian producers, China levied 25% on pork and fish and a whopping 100% import tariff on canola oil and meal. It is important to note that the Chinese import tariffs are not targeting canola seed – which is by far the bigger of the canola commodity business into China… yet. The anti-dumping investigation is still ongoing.
ICE canola prices (May ’25) have lost CA$68/t for the week which has flowed on to GM prices here. It feels like the reaction in the market is overblown as the Chinese will still import seed for their own crush, so the tap hasn’t been completely shut off. European (MATIF) canola futures also took a hit on the premise of cheaper Canadian supplies where the GM can supplement the non-GM product.
Overnight, President Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol imports. Opening a new front in the tariff disputes was viewed poorly, with stock markets feeling the pressure. The S&P 500 finished the day more than 10% below its record high, reached last month.
The week ahead….
April 2 looms large on the calendar as the date when Trump decides whether to implement the broad ranging tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Of concern, is the possibility that the tariff’s will go further and target other agricultural imports, including our beef and lamb sector.
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Click on graph to expand
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Data sources: Reuters, USDA, Mecardo, Bloomberg, Next Level Grain Marketing
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Wheat stumbles, canola bubbles
The wheat market has been caught in something of a downdraft this week. High-level talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine have been viewed as
Endless trade disruptions
There is no shortage of news to report on in agricultural commodity markets. This week, it is shipping fees and Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola
Mixed outcomes for the ag market
Give or take a few cents, the US wheat market close last night was relatively unchanged for the week. Some supportive news, including better-than-expected new
Grain options as a hedging tool
After spending much of the three months over harvest doing very little, volatility is back in the wheat market. Canola has been on a rollercoaster
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.