There is plenty going on in the world and locally which could move cattle markets. Ever rising tensions in the Middle East will have impacts on energy and input costs, while rain across vast inland areas could tighten supply. There has also been some data drops recently, today we look at feedlots, and the continual rise of grain fed beef.
The latest data on how many cattle are on feed, and how many were turned off, is from the end of December. After a not unusual dip in the September quarter, the rising trend of cattle on feed continued in December.
A new record was set for cattle on feed, with 1.614 million head in feedlot pens at the end of December (Figure 1). The increase in cattle on feed was driven by NSW where numbers were up 9.6% on September, and 26.8% on December 2024. Queensland was also up, gaining 9.6% on last year, and remaining by far the largest lot feeding state, with 57% of the nation’s cattle on feed.
Turnoff from feedlots was down marginally in September, but up 20.7% on December last year, underlining the extraordinary demand for beef in global markets.
What was missed in some of the commentary was the fact that for the first time over 1 million head of cattle were placed in feedlots in the December quarter. Placements are not reported, we calculate them by taking the difference in cattle on feed between quarters and adding turnoff. December placements were up 28.8% on December 2024.
Total placements of cattle on feed for 2025 were 3.826 million head. We can estimate the calf crop, which was 9.7 million head in 2025, so 39% of calves marked went through a feedlot in 2025.
Figure 2 shows feedlot utilisation climbing to 92% as the surge in feedlot capacity slowed a little. Strong feedlot utilisation is a indicator of strong feeder supply, and good feeding margins. With feed grain prices cheap, relative to finished cattle prices, it makes sense that more cattle are finding themselves being finished on grain.
These cattle on feed numbers were set before China imposed a quota on beef imports. The quota may have an impact on feeding margins as we move through the year.
What does it mean?
Record numbers of cattle on feed suggests the strong supply of cattle to processors is not going to slow down any time soon. It would take tightening supply of grassfed cattle to see total supply tighten. We could see this if the herd is indeed shrinking with strong female slaughter.
Key Points
- Cattle on feed numbers reached a new record high in December.
- Quarterly placements of cattle on feed were over 1 million head for the first time.
- High numbers of cattle on feed suggest processors will have good supply going forward.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, ALFA, MLA, Mecardo
