Sheep,In,Farm,Yard

A return to a normal trading week meant a significant uptick in supply, putting the lamb market under pressure for the first time in a while, but it didn’t stop mutton making up even more ground and reaching record highs. The scramble for sheep supply which has been anticipated seems to be eventuating, as consecutive years of high turn off now meet much improved seasonal conditions in many sheep producing areas. Sustained above average lamb prices also likely have processors and their customers looking to mutton where they can, adding further competition.

National lamb yardings were over 227,000 head this week, which was 53% jump from the previous week, and 101% up year-on-year. However, both last week and the equivalent week in 2025 were impacted by Easter public holidays, making the comparison warped. However, we can still categorise the increase as real given it was the largest national lamb yarding since the second week in February, and the third-highest lamb yarding for 2026 so far. Sheep yardings on the other hand, while rising 79% from the week prior were only 12% above year-ago numbers, and if we look at the first week post-Easter in 2025, sheep numbers were more than 40,000 head lower.

The National Mutton Indicator headed in the other direction, rising another 2% to end the week at 831¢/kg having reached a record 837¢/kg earlier the week. It now sits at 143% higher year-on-year. The NMI level is being restricted by the sheep price in the west, with the two largest yardings this week (Forbes and Dubbo, NSW) both averaging over 870¢/kg. This put the NSW average at 848¢/kg, while Katanning, Western Australia, sat at just 686¢/kg, a drop of 30¢/kg in the past month.

Meat and Livestock Australia’s online sheep indicator is likely more reflective of what is currently available, ending this week at $212/head compared to $331/head at the end of last month. While the current price is roughly on-par with month ago levels, it is $100 dearer than the same time last year. Notably nearly 70% of the throughput came from northern NSW, where seasonal conditions are significantly worse than further south.

Restocker lambs online, however, are sitting historically high $221/head after reaching a record $226/head last week. Central West NSW and the Riverina had the highest throughput, and both averaged more than $240/head. The AuctionsPlus Restocker Lamb Indicator also rose this week by 10¢/kg to 1421¢/kg carcase weight. Restocker lambs in saleyards however dipped nearly 20¢/kg, with numbers lifting by more than 16,000 head. It still left the national restocker lamb price at 1220¢/kg though, 80% above both the five and 10-year average.

Next week

With another public holiday for some states just around the corner, supply and demand dynamics will end up slightly skewed for all of April, but the lack of sheep in the system is becoming clearly apparent. While there is little to indicate significant downside pressure on any market in the short-term, pushback from processors could be on the horizon as we get closer to winter.

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Click on graph to expand

Click on graph to expand

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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo, AuctionsPlus

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