Wool production remains under downward pressure in the major wool exporting countries as low wool prices struggle to compete with high sheep meat prices and competing non-sheep enterprises such as cropping, beef and forestry. This article updates the latest Australian wool production volumes.
The information used in the article is from the analytics web page provided by the AWTA (see more here). The AWTA have made a small change this season so that the geographic origin of wool tested is the Wool Statistical Area (where the farm growing the wool is) rather than the site at which the wool was sampled for testing. This means the state data now reflects wool production accurately, whereas before a lot of wool was shipped interstate to wool stores before testing (for example, southern NSW wool being sampled in Victoria for wool brokers selling in Melbourne).
Figure 1 shows the percentage year-on-year change in AWTA volumes for the three months to July, by micron category, for eastern and Western Australia. Apart from two minor exceptions (in absolute volume terms), volumes fell across both the merino and non-merino micron categories. Sixteen micron and finer volumes in eastern Australia were close to unchanged.
Figure 2 shows the change by micron category in farm bale terms (each farm bale weighing around 115 clean kg or 179 greasy kg on average). While proportional changes may be large for smaller volume categories, this schematic shows where the big changes are in absolute terms. The 18 and 19 micron categories have suffered the biggest drop in production, which fits as these are the big micron categories for the Australian merino clip. Such a fall in the core micron category volumes indicates it is primarily lower merino sheep numbers driving the change.
Figure 3 looks at the overall change in volume (split into eastern and Western Australia) from 2018 onwards, with a rolling 12-month rainfall rank (weighted across sheep regions of wool production) overlaid. Seasonal conditions (for which rainfall is a proxy) play a large role in the variation in sheep sent to abattoirs and wool production. The schematic shows the rainfall rank in 2025 to be hovering around the 30th percentile, which is on the dry side and would be expected to put downward pressure on both sheep numbers and wool production, as it did in 2018 and 2019. The industry is hoping rainfall in the next two to three months (the southern hemisphere spring) will be much better than last year in the southern regions, allowing sheep numbers to stabilise and wool production to recover in 2026.
Finally, thank you for the generous hospitality shown to the writer and family during the recent visit to Uruguay and Argentina. As mentioned, if you have any questions or queries about an article or a suggestion for an article, contact Mecardo and we will do our best to respond.
What does it mean?
Lower wool production in Australia will continue to be supportive of both merino and crossbred prices in 2025. The industry is hoping improved rainfall in the coming months will set up 2026 for a stabilisation is sheep numbers and a pickup in wool production.
Key Points
- Australian wool production continues to fall across most micron categories.
- The fall in 18-19 micron volumes reflects lower merino sheep numbers as the main driver of change.
- The rolling 12 month rainfall rank shows that seasonal conditions continue to put downward pressure on production
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: AWTA, Silo, ICS, Mecardo
