While the official crop report is a little way off, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) has had a crack at estimating sowing areas in WA for the coming winter cropping season. Looking at the estimates, the WA wheatbelt might need to be renamed the Wheleyola belt.
Wheat, barley, canola belt is a bit hard to get out, hence shortening it to wheleyola. GIWA are forecasting winter wheat plantings will fall dramatically in 2026-27 on the back of higher costs of production, and weaker margins compared to barley and canola.
Figure 1 shows that WA wheat plantings are forecast to fall below four million hectares for the first time since 1995. Both barley and canola are expected to see record plantings this autumn, with both moving over 2 million hectares. GIWA (GIWA Crop Report – May 2026) cite better yields from barley, and better margins from canola for the switch.
Total winter crop area is forecast to reach a new record high, as the sheep continue to exit the system.
We can see in figure 2 that wheat fell under 50% of winter cropping area for the first time ever in 2025-26 and forecast to hit 40% in the coming year. WA croppers will plant more canola and barley than wheat by area for the first time this year. Quite the decline for the wheat belt.
Focussing in on canola, we had a query as to whether increasing canola production in the west would impact prices. Figure 3 shows an increase in WA canola area doesn’t always mean increased supply, with yields the key variable.
If we get average yields and larger canola production, prices may be a little weaker relative to international values, but export prices will always ultimately dictate the level.
The forecast El Nino is bringing with it concerns on production on the east coast, and questions around a canola drought premium. If canola supply is weak on the east coast, and strong in the west, the cost of freight will ensure that east coast canola moves at the very least at a premium to European markets, and likely stronger based on historical precedents.
What does it mean?
Swings in WA plantings might be telling for global wheat supplies over the year, with many producers facing similar planting decisions. For prices in the west, the export market will remain the key driver of pricing for all commodities.
Key Points
- WA wheat plantings are forecast to be down replaced by barley and canola.
- Export markets will continue to drive pricing in WA.
- East coast markets are unlikely to be impacted by a bigger WA canola crop.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABARES, GIWA, Mecardo
