Title rainfall forecast forces flock to market

Sheep transport vehicle

The uptick in the sheep and lamb market last week was short lived, with most prices dropping. But it was more than likely rainfall - or a lack thereof - that caused the fall, rather than Trump’s new tariffs which tanked everything else in the past week.

While weekly throughput can be hard to directly compare to previous years in April due to the changing dates of Easter and the public holidays that come with it, we do usually see one last spike in numbers at some point before a general decline through to mid-winter. One would think this past week has been it, as producers who have yet to receive rain got in before holidays start to impact buying and processing.

Lamb yardings lifted 44% for the week to about 246,000 head, which while a significant increase wasn’t out of the ordinary, still sitting 5% below year-ago levels. Sheep yardings, however, nearly doubled, lifting 87% for the week to more than 170,000, up 41% on the same week in 2024. That’s a whopping 167% above the five-year-average for the same week. It was the largest combined sheep and lamb yarding week for the year, and while sheep yardings have been larger once this year, historically this week’s numbers were very high.

It will take a week for the slaughter data to catch up, so last week’s numbers were actually about 18,000 head lower, with most of this made up by a smaller sheep kill, which dropped 8% from the week prior. Again, these figures were still well above year-ago levels, up 20% for lamb and more than 30% for sheep.

Of course this only meant one thing for the mutton market in particular, which lost most of the record gains it made the previous week. It closed at just shy of 464¢/kg nationally, dropping about 86¢/kg week-on-week. While this maintained its significant premium on the same time last year, it is below the five-year-average, and only just eclipsing the longer term 10-year figure. More than 30,000 sheep were yarded at Wagga Wagga, NSW, making up 28% of the indicator, and they averaged well below the national figure at 425¢/kg.

All other indicators also ended the week lower, with restocker lamb throughput up more than 18,000 and the price losing about 26¢/kg to close at 750¢/kg. Trade lambs held fairly firm at 810¢/kg, which is 15¢/kg stronger than where they were the same time last year, and close to current processor direct grids. Heavy lambs were the only category that decreased in numbers this week, but it didn’t stop the price dipping 14¢/kg to 806¢/kg.

The week ahead….

The general consensus seems to be that April is set to remain dry, which will continue to encourage plenty of supply, of store stock at least. With producers and processors alike now juggling plans around three public holidays in the next two weeks, both sides of the equation will be skewed, but it is unlikely much upside will present itself to sellers in the short term. We will need to wait until we come out the other side of the holidays and check the forecast again, to see if the market will follow usual upward trends into winter.

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Data sources: MLA, Nutrien Ag Solutions, , Mecardo

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