Winter chill and price premiums have returned to the southern sheep regions. Turnoff sheep are few and far between and mutton indicators are now over $9/kg. Lambs in general are scarce, but sourcing lambs to do a job at the moment is tough going now that feeders and processors are competing for the same stock.
Indicators all saw double digit improvement this week (see indicator table) with light lambs the best on ground, gaining 47¢ to 1170¢/kg cwt. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) jumped 40¢ to 1247¢/kg cwt. The National Mutton Indicator (NMI) increased 29¢ to 914¢/kg cwt.
Heavy lamb discounts compared to trade lambs in the eastern states are currently sitting around $1/kg cwt with the discount getting much steeper in the last month (Figure 2). That’s not to say that heavy lambs aren’t in hot demand because they are, but the drop in trade spec lambs available is the clear story. It is quite the contrast to last year’s market where the heavy lambs went missing, driving prices to record highs. Despite the supply slump overall, this year lambs with weight are in stronger numbers. In 2026 so far, Heavy lamb throughput is 13% higher compared to last year. Trade lambs on the other hand are 26% lower compared to last year.
We know producers are feeding lambs and holding onto stock to maximise returns but the drop in trade spec numbers is notable. Figure 3 shows trade lamb and heavy lamb throughput numbers (based on the indicators they qualify for) and for the first time in 5 years, trade lambs are lower in numbers than heavy lambs. Trade lambs normally dominate the monthly yardings, averaging over 570K more head than heavy lambs through to the yards. In June, there’s been 165k fewer trade lambs than heavy lambs. Buyers are going to have be flexible and get the elbows out to get what they want in the next few weeks.
Next week
Theres going to be plenty of competition now for the lighter lambs that could go onto feed or onto a supermarket shelf. Whatever is processed now, won’t be there later in the year, which bodes well for some price sustainability for later in the year. The spring flush will likely remain limited again for the third consecutive year.
US consumers having baulked yet, now to see how Australian retail consumers react now that supermarket lambs are driving the market higher?
Buyers were chasing weight this week in the depths of winter with heavy lambs across the saleyards attracting the most interest. Indicators were a mixed
Lamb exports remained resilient last month, but the sheep supply constraints were evident as mutton volumes fell away. China continues to bolster demand across both
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Trade lamb numbers continue to fall
Next week
Theres going to be plenty of competition now for the lighter lambs that could go onto feed or onto a supermarket shelf. Whatever is processed now, won’t be there later in the year, which bodes well for some price sustainability for later in the year. The spring flush will likely remain limited again for the third consecutive year.
US consumers having baulked yet, now to see how Australian retail consumers react now that supermarket lambs are driving the market higher?
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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
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Have any questions or comments?
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.