Trade lambs reach new high tide mark

Expectations have been for supply to tick lower on the approach to winter, but historic trends don’t make it rain. In June, saleyard throughput typically tracks lower, lambs average a 12% decline MoM in throughput to the yards, and sheep average an 18% decline in throughput for sheep. Supply would always tighten, but considering the difficult conditions, it has been tricky to say how much the decline will be. Combined lamb and sheep yardings for June are on track to finish 23% lower MoM, and rainfall is likely playing its part.

This last week, in a complete flip to what’s been happening in terms of rainfall this year, the south got a drink, and the north remained dry. Weekly Rainfall totalled an average of 100mm in southern Victoria per the BOM and tracked lower as you travel north to light rainfall along the Murray.

It doesn’t rain grass and there’s plenty more needed, particularly at this time of year, to get the train back on the tracks, but the rain did inspire some confidence and at minimum kept some stock back at the farm for a week at least. Pricing benefited from the downtick in supply and rain as price indicators averaged a weekly improvement between 37c to 75c.

The National mutton indicator jumped 37c to 671c/kg cwt, and the National Trade Lamb Indicator rose 75c.kg cwt to a new high tide mark of 1049c/kg cwt.  The ESTLI now sits at 1079c/kg cwt, also a record. 

As discussed by Jamie-Lee Oldfield in Mecardo this week, Lamb exports reached a new monthly record for May and China imported its largest volume of Australian lamb since September 2023 (read more here).  With Malaysia and Saudi Arabia growing market share for mutton as well, demand fundamentals have been very strong for sheep meat.