Train back on the tracks as supply evens out

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Cattle Supply is beginning to even out, and rain continues to fall on the east coast. The result has been a return to late 2024 form for cattle markets this week as the EYCI pushes upward again by 16¢ to 669¢/kg cwt.

A dry summer and plentiful supply had contributed to an easing market on the east coast to start this season. However, some top-up rain and less volatile supply have put the train back on the tracks. Indicative NLRS yardings data saw 65K head of throughput this week, which is just 4% higher week on week. On the West coast, young cattle prices (WYCI) lost 10¢ to 546¢/kg cwt, with gains seen in Mount Barker retracing some of the losses seen at Muchea, where more secondary types dominated the lower yarding.

The grain-fed cattle industry remains a key driver of productivity for the Australian cattle industry. The latest ALFA data (Q4 2024) released this week showed continued growth as feedlots reached a carrying capacity of 1.65 million head nationally.  Over 3.14 million head of cattle were marketed nationally out of feedlots in 2024.  MLA Saleyard reports this week reflected the bullish sentiment for the industry. Wagga saw a notable influx of feedlot and backgrounding orders, pushing prices higher despite secondary cattle dominating supply. The result was a 12¢ increase in the national feeder steer indicator to 364¢/kg lwt.

With 90Cl export lean beef prices at record highs, Jamie-Lee Oldfield this week on Mecardo took a deep dive into the current impact on processor cow prices (read more here). The cow price closed January at 492¢/kg, which put the 90CL price at a 115% premium. At the same time last year, this premium was only about 70%. Drought turn-off in 2019 and the US previous cyclical herd low in 2014 are the only other years around the 50% premium range. The National Processor cow indicator improved 26¢ this week to 297¢/kg lwt.

Next week

This week’s results and rainfall might tempt more cattle back out.  Scarcity is required for the December highs of feeder cattle to be seen again before the end of Autumn.

While plentiful cow supply is keeping processors busy, when rain does potentially fall in the Southwest of Victoria and South Australia (hopefully in March, according to the BOM), processors might need to get their elbows out to acquire the heavier cattle at the yards.

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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo, ALFA, BOM

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