Records continue to tumble in lamb and mutton markets, as supply continues to tighten. Lamb exports have been booming this year, and with tightening supply, someone must be missing out, and someone is buying the expensive lamb.
This week, we’re going to have to use four charts to illustrate the story, as it seems we haven’t published a lamb slaughter chart for some time. Figure 1 shows the rapid decline in the availability of finished lambs.
The last two weeks have seen lamb slaughter fall below the five-year average. It is interesting to note that lamb slaughter is still much stronger, in the order of 23%, than in July 2019 and 2020. Lamb slaughter is also 8% higher than 2021; it is just way down in 2023 and 2024.
July lamb exports were lower, down 12.5%, but the US market is holding relatively strong, down 5% on last year, and up marginally on June numbers (Figure 2). The market that is missing out is the Middle East, which took 52% less lamb than July last year, and 45% less than May this year, which was the peak of 2025.
Lamb exports to China were up 6% on last year, but down 28% on June. Lamb exports to China usually weaken in July and through to spring.
The only real indication we can get of lamb export prices is the imported price reported by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Figure 3 shows the two largest volume cuts to the US, and prices are higher. Chilled shortloins to the US are 20% stronger than last year, and frozen boneless legs are 24% stronger.
For reference in our terms, the shortloin price comes out at $21.40/kg and the leg at $17/kg. Prices to the US are much stronger than last year, but lamb prices are 50% stronger in saleyards.
Looking at this data suggests the US is the market prepared to pay more for lamb, while a lack of appropriate supply and increasing prices are seeing buyers in the Middle East and China slow shipments.
What does it mean?
Stronger export prices are good news for lamb producers, as it means consumers in the US are prepared to pay more for lamb, which offers support for higher prices. Weakening exports to other markets is not great news, but when supply falls like it has this winter, there has to be less volume going somewhere.
Key Points
- Lamb slaughter has dropped dramatically and is being reflected in export volumes.
- Export volumes to the US remain strong, and prices have rallied.
- China and the Middle East are taking less lamb, a result of supply and rising prices.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, DAFF, USDA, ABS, Mecardo
