The USDA seems to get a thrill from keeping people guessing. At the start of this week, all the news pointed to a falling commodity market. Improving crop conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, declining demand from key importers as they stared into new crop availability and the expectation that the US farmer in particular, would sow enormous acres to corn and soybeans to fill the gap between supply and demand
Last night’s USDA stock and acreage report seemed to be at best, counter-intuitive. While wheat area is up 4.5%, all the talk surrounded the fact that the US farmer has virtually ignored corn. Up 1%, or just 325k acres, the intended corn acres were well down on expectations. The combined corn and bean acreage of 178.7M acres was below the trades expected 183.2M acres. To put this in some kind of perspective however, this represents an increase of 4.8m acres above the 173.9M acres the USDA predicted last year.
Amid all the noise coming from the corn pit, wheat area quietly came in well above expectations.
There will be plenty of speculation around the validity of the survey data. Did the new crop inverse scare off potential swing acres? Does the farmer ignore price signals and simply stick to their rotation? (remembering a good rotation is possibly the best risk management method you can use). Is the survey method flawed and the USDA simply wrong? Whatever the reason, the market will mull this over for some time and keep volatility firmly entrenched.
Wheat will continue to be a follower of corn, despite what is arguably a bearish report for wheat. Higher ending stocks and an increase in area should have seen wheat prices tumble. It would appear that the US will need a ‘perfect’ season for row crops to satisfy the market.
The week ahead….
With both corn and soybeans hitting limit-up moves last night, expect follow-through action to continue today. Wheat will be a passive follower. This report sets the scene for a tumultuous planting period over the next couple of months with little room to move in case of weather or planting issues.
Canola pricing has continued its rollercoaster price trend in recent weeks, as international values fluctuate on political announcements. Wheat has been much more benign, although
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
USDA lights up the bull pen
Last night’s USDA stock and acreage report seemed to be at best, counter-intuitive. While wheat area is up 4.5%, all the talk surrounded the fact that the US farmer has virtually ignored corn. Up 1%, or just 325k acres, the intended corn acres were well down on expectations. The combined corn and bean acreage of 178.7M acres was below the trades expected 183.2M acres. To put this in some kind of perspective however, this represents an increase of 4.8m acres above the 173.9M acres the USDA predicted last year.
Amid all the noise coming from the corn pit, wheat area quietly came in well above expectations.
There will be plenty of speculation around the validity of the survey data. Did the new crop inverse scare off potential swing acres? Does the farmer ignore price signals and simply stick to their rotation? (remembering a good rotation is possibly the best risk management method you can use). Is the survey method flawed and the USDA simply wrong? Whatever the reason, the market will mull this over for some time and keep volatility firmly entrenched.
Wheat will continue to be a follower of corn, despite what is arguably a bearish report for wheat. Higher ending stocks and an increase in area should have seen wheat prices tumble. It would appear that the US will need a ‘perfect’ season for row crops to satisfy the market.
The week ahead….
With both corn and soybeans hitting limit-up moves last night, expect follow-through action to continue today. Wheat will be a passive follower. This report sets the scene for a tumultuous planting period over the next couple of months with little room to move in case of weather or planting issues.
Have any questions or comments?
Figure by @kannbwx Click on figure to expand
Figure by @kannbwx Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: USDA, Reuters
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Benign cereal and volatile canola
Now that harvest is nearly complete and traders are back from holidays, markets should be starting to fire up again Producers who went to the
Big WA crop could be priced better next year
It’s the last grain analysis article for the year, so we’ll provide a short harvest update, and take a look at the crystal ball to
Make it make sense
Week on week, the wheat market has managed to stay pretty much exactly where it was – unchanged despite a raft of big data being
Canola rollercoaster and wheat flat track
Canola pricing has continued its rollercoaster price trend in recent weeks, as international values fluctuate on political announcements. Wheat has been much more benign, although
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.