There is always some variation between flock size estimates, depending on the time of year the estimate is made, the quality of survey and the method of estimation. However the current situation has a 10 million head difference between the main estimates, which in a flock of 55-67 million is a large variation.
The wool industry loves to talk about marketing and has literally spent billions over the decades on marketing. The meat industry likes to trumpet about record lamb production and exports. Given the focus on marketing and exports, it would be useful to have a strong understanding of our basic unit of production – the size and makeup of the Australian sheepo flock. Currently the MLA estimate the sheep flock to be around 67 million, while the Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) estimate some 56.5 million sheep will be shorn in Australia this season, implying the flock size is around 55-56 million. This is a 10 million head difference between the estimates.
Figure 1 shows annual flock size estimates from 2015 onwards produced by the MLA, ABS and the AWPFC (sheep shorn). The estimates have varied across this period, with the AWPFC numbers possibly boosted by premature shearings early in the schematic. The ABS has only released some experimental estimates for 2023 and 2024 as it struggles to replace the traditional survey work which underpinned flock estimates. Since 2024 the MLA and AWPFC estimates have diverged widely, and the ABS has been AWOL. In a stable situation where the flock was varying primarily in response to changing seasonal conditions this would not be too great an issue. The production of sheep meat is measured at the abattoir and the production of wool with AWTA core test data. However the situation for the Australian sheep flock is not stable, with Western Australia a prime example.
Wool supply data supports the AWPFC estimates, for wool producing sheep. The question is whether non-wool producing sheep account for the difference in the estimates, a solution which seems unlikely as it would require 15% of the flock to be made up of non-wool breeds. For 2024 and 2025 the MLA survey had the shedding/cleanskin proportion of ewes at 7%. Within the woolled breeds, the merino component of the woolclip has been steady in recent years (Figure 2) so there is no great change occurring from this angle.
The criticisms levelled in this article at the disparate estimates of the Australian sheep flock are not meant to minimise the problems of making such assessments. The point being made here is that the industry (wool and sheep meat) has a problem that needs fixing. Even a return to the triennial surveys of the sheep industry in the 1950s and 1970s, published by the BAE, would be a marked improvement on the current situation.
What does it mean?
An understanding of the flock size and structure allows a much better view of production trends for wool and sheep meat. An estimate of the flock size somewhere between 55 and 65 million is hardly a good understanding of the productive engine for the wool and sheep meat industries.
Key Points
- The Australian sheep industry has a problem with varying flock estimates.
- In a time of change to the flock size, this implies the industry is flying blind.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: AWPFC, MLA ABS, AWEX, ICS, Mecardo
