Waiting on the lambs to come

New season lamb numbers to the yards are beginning to creep higher but are still lagging behind average levels and the last two seasons (Figure 1).  The next fortnight typically sees new season lamb numbers double and the beginning of spring market dynamics kicking in.  If the spring flush is going to track below the last few seasons, this should limit strong spring price corrections. 

Restockers were keen to acquire some of these new season lambs that made their way to the yards this week. Lambs back to paddock nationally were 19¢ higher to 1096¢/kg cwt. The rest of the indicators saw double digit losses as spring pricing begins to kick into gear (see indicator Table). The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) dropped 45¢ to 1160¢/kg cwt.

Cull sheep numbers recovered this week, with sheep throughput to the yards 30% higher WoW to 50k head. Despite the uptick, the numbers are still not overwhelming and well under the same week last year (-42% YoY).  Mutton prices remain historically strong at 815¢/kg cwt (down 5¢ WoW).  

On Mecardo this week Jamie Lee Oldfield took a look at the dynamics playing out in the WA flock (read more here).  West Australian lamb yardings have maintained more momentum than in the east so far this year, only dipping 2% compared to 21% on the east coast.  WA Trade lambs are trading at half the usual discount to the ESTLI so far this year.

Combined lamb and sheep slaughter has come out of the winter shutdown gully and bounced back to approach last year’s level. New season lambs will likely be in better shape and heavier on average than last year which will likely motivate processors once the cavalry arrives.