A request came through to provide an update on the WA flock, and how slaughter numbers, and thereby the flock, are tracking following the election result. With the termination of the sheep live export industry now a fait accompli, we’re expecting a further decline in the flock, but what do the numbers say?
The Sheep Producers’ Intentions Survey (SPIS) was, admittedly, conducted before the election, so there may have been some hope that the live export ban would be repealed. Even so, we would expect the Merino dominant WA flock to be in decline due to weak wool values.
It was with some surprise to find the SPIS reporting just a 0.4% decline in WA’s breeding ewe numbers, a 3.3% increase in the number of Merino ewes, and a strong increase in the proportion of Merinos (figure 1). The SPIS tells us that WA breeding ewes are up 1.4% on 2023.
The SPIS numbers do not match with anecdotal evidence, wool production numbers, or sheep and lamb slaughter values.
WA lamb slaughter is an interesting study. Figure 2 shows that the five-year average, which represents traditional marketing patterns, has slaughter peaking in spring. The last two years have seen slaughter peaking in autumn, on average 16% stronger than the five-year average.
This suggests stronger marketing of slower-growing Merino ewe and wether lambs, which traditionally would have been kept for breeding and wool production.
WA sheep slaughter has dropped off a cliff in July, as seasonal maintenance shutdowns have an impact. For the year to date, however, WA sheep slaughter has remained strong, 15% higher than the elevated levels of 2024, and 48% stronger than the five-year average (figure 2).
The SPIS flock data, combined with very strong slaughter levels, suggests that WA lamb marking rates are achieving some sort of extreme record.
WA lamb prices have broken through 1000¢ per kg cwt in the last month, with mutton moving above 600¢, both adding some much-needed positivity for the WA sheep industry.
What does it mean?
Strong prices, if maintained, should slow the WA flock liquidation in the coming spring. We saw last year that the spring lamb supply was tighter than autumn, and it is likely something we will see again. For sheep, spring slaughter should be lower based on an exodus of Merino wethers as lambs in the last two years. The SPIS data suggests ewe slaughter numbers should be similar, but anecdotal and slaughter data indicate sheep supply will tighten significantly in the coming year.
Key Points
- WA breeding ewe numbers are holding steady according to survey data.
- Slaughter data shows very strong year-to-date markings of both lambs and sheep in WA.
- Spring sheep and lamb supply should be tighter, based on recent trends.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, AWI, Mecardo
