After a couple of weeks of trading sideways, the wheat market snapped and plunged lower, breaking through the psychological level of support at 560c/bu and now look-ing to test the next level of support at 520c/bu.
This time the catalyst was some welcome rains throughout the US wheat
belt, just in time to see some improvement in condition scores (+3 to 44% good
to excellent) before the crop shuts down for winter.
The other concern for wheat is the strength of the USD. Since Trump’s election victory, the greenback has been on something of a tear.
Falling interest rates and enthusiasm for the new administration have seen the US financial market soar. However, you can’t eat Bitcoin. Fears are that the strength of the USD against a basket
of other currencies is going to make other exports, in particular wheat, corn
and soybeans, that much more expensive compared to other origins. Coupled with Trump’s tariff plans, the risk is that US stocks build, which could have a negative impact
on global wheat prices.
The subsequent fall in the AUD has helped to shield us from falling
commodity prices. Adding to the little Aussie battler’s woes is what is happening in China. A poor economic outlook, coupled
with a stimulus plan that has not appeared to have had any effect, could pose a
problem for the Australian economy. Reduced Chinese appetite for iron ore, coal
and agricultural commodities, makes Australia look vulnerable to our major trading
partner. A weaker AUD does make our exports more attractive and enhances the
reach that we can access. However, it makes our imports more expensive,
creating the risk of higher inflation.
Russian plans to curb exports appear to have hit a snag. Traders are
reported to be selling well under the state-mandated $245/t FOB value, with recent sales indicating a FOB price closer to
$227/t. To this effect, Russian exports for the month of November are on track
to reach 3.7 – 4.1mmt (compared with 3.5mmt average). It appears to be an attempt to avoid the
export tax hikes that the trade knows are coming. It begs the
question – at this pace, is Russia going to find itself in an oversold position?
Black Sea origins (including Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria) remain the cheapest in the world.
However, Brazil and Argentina are similarly priced, leaving the US and
Australia as high-priced outliers. It will likely keep international prices anchored for the
time being until such time that stocks become tighter.
Next week
Good luck to everyone out there harvesting. Happy National Ag Day #AGDAYAU
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Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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Was the USD on your bingo card?
This time the catalyst was some welcome rains throughout the US wheat belt, just in time to see some improvement in condition scores (+3 to 44% good to excellent) before the crop shuts down for winter.
The other concern for wheat is the strength of the USD. Since Trump’s election victory, the greenback has been on something of a tear. Falling interest rates and enthusiasm for the new administration have seen the US financial market soar. However, you can’t eat Bitcoin. Fears are that the strength of the USD against a basket of other currencies is going to make other exports, in particular wheat, corn and soybeans, that much more expensive compared to other origins. Coupled with Trump’s tariff plans, the risk is that US stocks build, which could have a negative impact on global wheat prices.
The subsequent fall in the AUD has helped to shield us from falling commodity prices. Adding to the little Aussie battler’s woes is what is happening in China. A poor economic outlook, coupled with a stimulus plan that has not appeared to have had any effect, could pose a problem for the Australian economy. Reduced Chinese appetite for iron ore, coal and agricultural commodities, makes Australia look vulnerable to our major trading partner. A weaker AUD does make our exports more attractive and enhances the reach that we can access. However, it makes our imports more expensive, creating the risk of higher inflation.
Russian plans to curb exports appear to have hit a snag. Traders are reported to be selling well under the state-mandated $245/t FOB value, with recent sales indicating a FOB price closer to $227/t. To this effect, Russian exports for the month of November are on track to reach 3.7 – 4.1mmt (compared with 3.5mmt average). It appears to be an attempt to avoid the export tax hikes that the trade knows are coming. It begs the question – at this pace, is Russia going to find itself in an oversold position?
Black Sea origins (including Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria) remain the cheapest in the world. However, Brazil and Argentina are similarly priced, leaving the US and Australia as high-priced outliers. It will likely keep international prices anchored for the time being until such time that stocks become tighter.
Next week
Good luck to everyone out there harvesting. Happy National Ag Day #AGDAYAU
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: SovEcon, USDA, Bloomberg, Next Level Grain Marketing, Mecardo
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Have any questions or comments?
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Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
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Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.